Is UK life expectancy levelling off?
The continuing increase in life expectancy seen over the past 40 years may be levelling off, experts have warned.
According to Continuous Mortality Investigation, the improvement in mortality rates for people over 18 was just 0.3% a year between 2011 and 2015, compared with 2.4% a year between 2000 and 2011.
That's the lowest figure in the last 40 years.
"At this stage it is too early to say whether mortality improvements may return to levels more in line with prior years' experience, or whether we are at the start of a period of prolonged lower improvements," warns the report.
The research, compiled for the insurance industry, suggests that we may simply be approaching the natural limits that the human body is capable of.
Up to now, life expectancy has been able to increase dramatically, thanks to the elimination of deadly childhood diseases, better nutrition, fewer dangerous jobs and a decrease in smoking. But there aren't many more gains to be made.
This year, indeed, life expectancy may actually have fallen for both men and women, thanks to the flu epidemic in January. The NHS vaccine failed to protect people against the most common strain of the virus. There were 'a large number of deaths,' says the report.
The epidemic hit women harder than men, possibly because they are more sensitive to cold, the report suggested, or because they live longer and so are on average older.
The upside of the news is that a lower life expectancy generally means cheaper life insurance. And with longer life spans having led to a higher state pension age, it may be that people won't be expected to work into their seventies after all.
In a separate report, the World Health Organisation has revealed that British women have the second-lowest life expectancy in Europe, at 82.7 years. Only Denmark is worse, at 82.1. Men, though, can expect to live until 78.8, above the European average of 73.1.
And there's big variation within the UK, with a clear north-south divide. According to Public Health England, people in the south-east of England can expect to live until 82.4 years on average, while the Scots have a life expectancy of just 79.1.
We are, of course, all advised to start living a healthier lifestyle.
"There is a very real risk that these gains will be lost if smoking and alcohol consumption continue at the current rate," warns Dr Zsuzsanna Jakab, WHO regional director for Europe.
"This is especially relevant to young people, who may not live as long as their grandparents."
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