Why winter sun holidays may soon be a thing of the past
The holiday is over – at least, it will be by 2050. Amid environmental catastrophes, ethical quandaries and economic turmoil, travel as we know it is “on the brink of extinction” – and if its trajectory continues, holidaymakers will be forced to embrace “virtual vacations” instead.
So begins a searing new report on the future of travel, published by leading adventure travel company Intrepid and foresight consultancy The Future Laboratory. It pulls no punches, citing climate data from NASA and the World Meteorological Organisation, hard examples of overtourism – Venice, Barcelona, Bali et al – and bleak tales aplenty from tourism’s front line.
By 2050, it says, low-lying islands such as the Maldives and Bahamas could become uninhabitable; by that same year, the Dead Sea’s popular spa resorts will overlook a dried-up crater. The likes of Miami, New Orleans and Bangkok are already threatened by rising oceans which, according to the US Global Change Research Programme, are set to swell “by a further 20-30cm” by 2050.
The dystopian thesis continues: last year, the island nation of Tuvalu announced that it would be the first “digitised nation in the metaverse”, creating VR versions of its landscapes and cultural rituals enabling people to “visit” if it is swallowed by rising tides. “The metaverse will be the only route to engage with places rendered inhospitable [by] climate change, where people will be able to interact with former iterations of these destinations,” predicts Intrepid, chillingly.
“The [travel] industry is faced with two potential roads ahead,” states Dr Susanne Etti, Intrepid’s global environmental impact manager, who was named a “climate pioneer” in this year’s BBC 100 Women – its annual list of inspiring and influential women.
“One where climate breakdown and tourism restrictions curb the pursuit of wanderlust, and one where regenerative breakthroughs change the future of travel – and the world – for the better.”
Because yes, travel is an undeniable force for good, a global $7.71 trillion (£6.07 trillion) industry that bolsters whole economies, unshackles innovation and oils the wheels of diplomacy. But not all holidays are created equal – and when the talk turns to climate change, winter sun getaways are standing awkwardly in the corner, eyeing up the door. Sure, flying halfway across the world to flop on a beach can put the spring into your step, but is it “regenerative” in Intrepid’s sense?
By its very nature, this type of trip is frivolous and indulgent – not a do-gooder. So, though it has long been something to aspire to, will long-haul winter sun lose its lustre in the coming decades?
Entirely likely, says Douglas Quinby, CEO and co-founder of travel company Arival. “Two in three [young] Gen-Z and Millennial travellers are already making [holiday] choices based on the impact the activity has on the environment and local community,” he states. This message is echoed loudly across the industry, with the likes of Amex, Hilton and Marriott Bonvoy returning similar conclusions from their own recent research.
Gen Z, those currently aged between 11 and 26, are already pouring scorn on their elders’ holiday choices. In a Telegraph Travel panel earlier this month, under-30s branded all-inclusive holidays “depressing, lazy and narrow-minded” – but the next generation, known as Alpha (born between 2010 and 2025), may have even stronger opinions.
“By 2040, it will be unusual to see members of Generation Alpha without a carbon footprint tracker on their smartphones,” Intrepid muses. “Every Uber ride, plane journey and trip to the supermarket will be logged in their devices, noting their carbon footprint in real time.”
Before Covid-19 temporarily clipped our wings, one in five travellers were flying less due to “flight shaming”, according to a 2019 study by the Swiss bank UBS. Of 6,000 western travellers, around 20 per cent said that being “called out” for travelling by air was keeping them grounded – a trend that, UBS warned, could halve air passenger growth.
The pandemic derailed that of course, but the travel industry is bouncing back strong (in October, over seven million people travelled through Heathrow, more than in October 2019) – and shame is back in the discourse. “Flight Shaming Will Return In 2023”, predicted Forbes this year, and it wasn’t wrong: in May, France banned domestic flights where the journey could be taken by rail, and earlier this month Spain set out plans to do the same.
Our lust for sunshine may be waning, too. After a summer of extreme temperatures across Europe, which saw vast areas of Greece, Spain, Italy and southern France devastated by forest fires and drought, climate change is already affecting how we choose our holidays. Two in five Britons (43 per cent) say that as future temperatures rise in the UK, they will use holidays to “cool down” in colder destinations, according to a new report by Booking.com.
Moreover, almost half of us (42 per cent) say that climate change has already influenced our trip plans for 2024; “heat has officially had its holiday heyday”, quips Booking.com. Whether by trend or necessity, our pursuit of winter sun may, in fact, end far sooner than 2050.
