NASA doubles risk of asteroid collision with Earth in 2032
Earth faces an increased risk of asteroid impact in 2032, with chances of a collision now roughly doubled, though experts remain confident we're safe.
The asteroid in question, 2024 YR, was discovered last year and is set to make its closest approach to our planet on 22 December 2032. Measuring up to 90 metres across, it poses a potential threat as it comes within Earth's vicinity.
While scientists acknowledge the heightened risk, they emphasise that the likelihood of disaster remains extremely low, with continuous monitoring ensuring that any developments are carefully tracked.
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NASA's Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has revised its predictions, now estimating a 2.3 per cent chance of Earth being struck by asteroid 2024 YR in 2032 – a slight increase from last week's 1 per cent forecast, meaning there's now a one-in-43 chance of a collision.
Despite this heightened probability, NASA assures that ongoing studies will refine the asteroid's trajectory, with the agency confident that the risk of impact will likely decrease as more data is gathered.
NASA has reassured the public that while asteroid 2024 YR’s risk level has risen, further observations may well lower the threat once again. "There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in," the space agency said in a statement last week.
Discovered on 27 December last year, 2024 YR first gained global attention a few days later, when it was added to NASA's list of near-Earth objects with potential collision risk. Currently, the asteroid holds a 3 out of 10 ranking on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which gauges the severity of asteroid threats, with 10 marking an apocalyptic level of danger.
Recent history has seen several asteroids initially given high-risk rankings, only for their threat levels to be downgraded as astronomers gathered more data on their trajectories.
In response to this growing concern, multiple programmes are investigating ways to avert potential asteroid collisions. These methods range from directing spacecraft to collide with the objects, to exploring the possibility of using nuclear blasts to alter their course.
Despite these efforts, experts warn that, at present, the world remains woefully underprepared for a potentially catastrophic asteroid strike.
