'Dubai is on steroids': How overtourism is fuelling a quiet crisis in the UAE
Dubai has become one of the hottest destinations on the planet, with record visitor arrivals and immigration. But the city is straining under the weight of new arrivals, and the cracks are starting to show.
Real estate in the city has broken records for transactions as more people look to settle in Dubai. State-owned airline Emirates has reported record profits as more travellers seek out the year-round sun of the UAE.
But as with many destinations in Europe, the constant increase in arrivals is putting a strain on the local population.
Traffic feels worse than ever on Dubai's roads. The price of housing continues to spike, even with new real estate projects being announced almost daily. Caught in the middle are both Emirati residents and the vast population of foreigners who power its economy, sparking rare public expressions of concern.
“Dubai is on steroids but affordability risks are increasing,” warned Hasnain Malik in a starkly titled report he wrote for the global data firm Tellimer, where he's a managing director.
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Housing prices are skyrocketing
Under Dubai's current plans, the city aims to have 5.8 million residents by 2040, adding more than half its current estimated population in just 15 years. Since 1980, its population has already soared from around 255,000 to around 3.8 million.
Real estate ignited Dubai's growth in 2002 when the desert sheikdom began allowing foreigners to own property. After sharp falls during both the 2008-2009 financial crisis and Dubai's brief coronavirus lockdown, property prices have been soaring.
Today, average prices per square foot are at all-time highs, according to Property Monitor. Rental prices increased as much as 20 per cent in key neighbourhoods last year, with further rises likely this year. Some residents are even moving to communities further out in the desert, according to real estate firm Engel & Völkers.
The roads in Dubai are jammed
Even before the boom, some people who worked in Dubai chose to live in the neighbouring emirate of Sharjah, some 20 kilometres north of the city's downtown. Others chose to move even further out of the city.
Around a million commuters from other emirates jam the 12-lane Sheikh Zayed Road every day. This main highway runs through the heart of the city, and studies suggest that as many as four out of five employees drive to work alone.
That traffic has only intensified with Dubai's new arrivals.
While the rest of the world saw around a 4 per cent increase in the number of registered vehicles in the last two years, Dubai's Road and Transportation Authority says it has seen a 10 per cent increase.
So many vehicles have been registered that the city has had to make license plates longer.
And while the city keeps building new flyovers and other road improvements, more cars are coming from more directions than ever before.
“Dubai is very attractive, more and more people are coming,” said Thomas Edelmann, the founder and managing director of RoadSafetyUAE, which advocates for traffic issues. “I think it’s easier to get people quickly to come to Dubai and convince them about Dubai than to build a new intersection or a new highway.”
Are Emirati's worried about overtourism?
Congestion has got so bad that it's driving even prominent Emiratis to break their customary silence on public affairs.
Habib Al Mulla, a prominent Emirati lawyer, wrote on the social platform X in December that while authorities were working on congestion, the problem demanded “a set of immediate and long-term mechanisms.”
He followed up by publishing an opinion piece twice mentioning “congestion” as being among “pressing issues" for global cities like Dubai.
While phrased in mild language, Al Mulla’s comments represented rare public criticism in the United Arab Emirates, where speech is tightly controlled by criminal law and social norms favour raising issues at a “majlis” — a semiprivate setting convened by a traditional ruler.
“The concentration of wealth and opportunities created in global cities may cause income inequality that pushes out lower-income residents,” Al Mulla warned in the English-language Khaleej Times newspaper in January.
“The problem becomes acute when the wealth and opportunities remain inaccessible to segments of the national population who witness the city’s allure being seized by outsiders. This may carry significant social risks, if not mitigated.”
There are also demographic concerns as the Emirati share of the population dwindles. While the number of residents isn't public, a back-of-the-envelope, informal calculation shared for years by experts suggests Emirati citizens represent around 10% of the country's overall population of more than 9 million people, a number that's likely falling as foreigners rush in.
Last month, sermon scripts issued for the 13 December Friday's prayers directly touched on the duty of having more children.
“Increasing offspring is both a religious obligation and a national responsibility, as it contributes to the protection and sustainability of nations,” the sermon read, according to a transcript issued by the federal government's General Authority of Islamic Affairs and Endowments.
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For Dubai's autocratic government, overseen by ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, possible solutions to the grinding traffic have ranged from the practical to the fanciful.
The government in recent months has repeatedly encouraged companies to allow more remote work options, including in a report released in November that also suggested staggered and flexible working hours.
Adding as many as five remote workdays a month, along with the other steps, “can reduce morning peak travel time across Dubai by 30 per cent,” the study stated.
Dubai's road toll system, known as Salik, has added gates to charge drivers more and will institute surge pricing at the end of the month. Dubai's Metro, which boasts the world's longest self-driving rail line, will also grow beyond its broadly north-south routes in a nearly $5 billion (€4.75 billion) expansion.
Then there's the flying taxi project. Since 2017, Dubai has been announcing plans for airborne cabs in the city. A first “vertiport” is being built by Dubai International Airport with the aim of offering the service from next year.
Dubai also plans 3,300 kilometres of new pedestrian paths, although, during Dubai's summer months, pedestrians have to contend with high humidity and heat of around 45 degrees Celsius.
“In the coming years, residents of Dubai will be able to move around by walking, cycling, its extensive network of roads and bridges, the Metro and its new lines, water taxis, or flying taxis on specific air routes,” Sheikh Mohammed said on X in December.
But for now, Dubai keeps attracting more people and more cars — and the traffic jams only get longer.
