Higher unemployment rate 'not behind a rise in crime'

Rising unemployment does not lead to an increase in crime, according to new research.

A study has found that the relationship between the economy and crime rates has varied over time with the link between unemployment and property crime - which was strong in the 1970s and 1980s - no longer the case since 2005.

Will Jennings, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southampton, said the findings might help explain why the recorded crime rate did not rise during the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

He said: "The evidence covering the past decade suggests the link between the economic cycle and crime rates has broken down, particularly in relation to unemployment rates.

"We cannot be sure why fluctuations in economic conditions no longer predict the sorts of changes in recorded crime rates they used to. It may be due to differences between the sorts of economic shocks experienced by the UK in the 1970s and 1980s compared to today.

"It could be because of changes in the labour market dampening the effects of recent economic downturns – or it could also be due to trends in crime prevention measures, such as growth in use of burglar alarms, CCTV and car immobilisers."

The researchers, from the universities of Southampton, Sheffield along with the French university SciencesPo, conducted the study by using time series modelling of data on the official unemployment rate and recorded property crime rate, testing how the relationship has varied from the 1940s to the present day.

Richard Garside, director of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, said: "This research demonstrates the importance of revisiting the past to understand the present.

"There is no iron law that explains rises and falls in the official crime rate. This important research challenges common sense notions that unemployment and economic shocks inevitably mean rises in property crime."

The research is part of the wider project Long-term trajectories of crime in the UK funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).

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