Retirement expert warns clock is ticking on State Pension Triple Lock uprating policy

A retirement expert has warned that while the Triple Lock policy has played a major role in underpinning annual State Pension increases for over a decade, there are signs that its time is starting to run out. Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown explained that one way the UK Government has been able to manage the ever-increasing cost of the State Pension is to hike State Pension age.

The age of retirement is currently 66 and due to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028, before a further increase to 68 in the mid-2040s. However, recent data from Hargreaves Lansdown shows that people’s desire for further increases are weakening with only one quarter (24%) of people saying they would be willing to work until the age of 70 to keep the Triple Lock.

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Over half (54%) of the 1,600 participants surveyed last month said they wouldn’t be willing to work until 70 and a further 23 per cent said they were unsure.

Commenting on the findings, Ms Morrissey said: “Drilling down into the results showed clear differences based on people’s ages. One-third of people aged between 18-34 said they would be willing to work longer, compared to only 18 per cent of those aged over 55. This is not surprising.

“At 55 the prospect of retiring looms ever larger and you may be very wedded to your current State Pension age. You may also have developed health conditions that you know will make it very difficult to keep working past your mid-sixties.”

She continued: “For younger age groups, the prospect of retirement is many years away and the idea of working an extra couple of years may not seem so bad. It does, also show that, expensive as the Triple Lock is, younger age groups do value what it does.

“Adequacy will be a vital component of the Government’s ongoing pension review, and the State Pension and the Triple Lock’s role within it, should be an important part of the debate.

“With an ageing population, we need to make sure the State Pension is placed on a stable footing for many years to come, so people can continue to use it as the basis of their retirement planning. This means we need certainty in terms of what we are due to receive and when, so we can plan with some degree of confidence.”

Under the Triple Lock, the New and Basic State Pensions increase each year in-line with whichever is the highest between the average annual earnings growth from May to July (4.1%), CPI in the year to September (1.7%), or 2.5 per cent.

This means that under the earnings growth figure of 4.1 per cent, people on the full New State Pension will see payments rise by £9.05 per week from £221.20 to £230.25 and as the payment is typically made every four weeks this amounts to £921.

State Pension payments 2025/26

The DWP will publish the full list of State Pension and benefit uprated payments shortly, so far they have only confirmed the New and Basic State Pension rates, not additional elements (which are rising by 1.7%).

Full New State Pension

• Weekly payment: £230.25 (from £221.20)

• Four-weekly payment: £921 (from £884.80)

• Annual amount: £11,973 (from £11,502)

Full Basic State Pension

• Weekly payment: £176.45 (from £169.50)

• Four-weekly payment: £705.80 (from £678)

• Annual amount: £9,175 (from £8,814)

Future State Pension increases

The Labour Government has pledged to honour the Triple Lock or the next five years and the latest predictions show the following projected annual increases:

• 2025/26 - 4.1% confirmed, the forecast was 4%

• 2026/27 - 2.5%

• 2027/28 - 2.5%

• 2028/29 - 2.5%

• 2029/30 - 2.5%

Recent analysis released by Royal London revealed only around half of people receiving the New State Pension last year were getting the full weekly amount - and around 150,000 were on less than £100 per week.

The DWP will issue letters to all 12.7m State Pensioners in the new year telling them their new payment rates. This letter also encourages older people to check if they are eligible for Pension Credit.

To check your own future State Pension payments, use the online forecasting tool on GOV.UK here.