Marathon finish times: What is a ‘good’ result for beginners?
In many ways, signing up for a marathon is less about the final 26.2-mile effort than it is about the journey to race day itself – the many miles logged and the lessons learnt in training, as well as the personal transformation that you underwent along the way. As such, the final marathon should be a celebration of that journey, no matter how long it took you to reach that finish line.
That said, whether it’s your first marathon or your 50th, it’s still normal to want to run a ‘good’ marathon finish time, even though it’s important to remember that ‘good’ is relative.
‘I feel like you should not go into your first marathon with a specific time goal,’ says running and strength coach Jess Movold, who adds that a good finish time for anyone new to the 26.2-mile distance is whatever time it takes to complete it. ‘A marathon is a totally new experience and it’s really hard to predict how you’re going to handle all the things that can come up over a distance that long.’
Nike Run Club coach Jes Woods, however, says that having a rough finish time in mind is conducive to marathon day motivation and success. ‘I do understand the need to have a time goal – you don’t want to just be out there without a plan,’ she notes. ‘You want to be purposeful and have a little bit of focus.’
So, how do you deduce your time goals for the marathon, especially if it’s your first? To give you some insight, here’s the data on the average marathon finish times – and how you can use it to inform your own race.
What is the average marathon finish time?
It’s easy to get caught up in what time other runners post as ‘good’ or ‘bad’, especially when viewed through the lens of social media or in the context of elite-level runners. But, as it happens, the average marathon finish time may be slower than you think.
According to a study conducted by Run Repeat, which included 19,614,975 marathon results from more than 32,335 races across the globe between 2008 to 2018 (and, for clarity, only included results that were clocked by recreational runners), the average marathon runner can complete the distance in 4:32:49. This equates to an average pace of 10:24 min/mile, or 6:28 km/min.
To break down the findings further, the average male runner finishes a marathon in 4:21:03, while the average female runner completes a marathon in 4:48:45.
The RunRepeat data also found that marathon runners across the world are, in general, getting slower – although the rate of slowing down is reducing. In 1986, the average marathon finish time, across genders, was under the four-hour mark: 3:52:35. By 2001, however, the average marathon finish time had increased by 36 minutes (15.6%) to 4:28:56. The current average finish time of 4:32:49, though, is only a 1.4% increase on this.
The fact that the average marathon finish time has got slower should not be considered a negative – rather, it highlights the marathon’s upsurge in popularity among runners of all abilities and experience levels over the past few decades, and more people’s willingness to lace up and take on the 26.2-mile challenge. Plus, in more recent years, continual developments in running shoe and kit technology, as well as greater availability of more structured and science-backed training plans, are helping runners to gradually get faster over the marathon distance – so we could a quicker average finish time in the near future.
How can I set a time goal for my first marathon?
Use a race time predictor
If you are keen to complete your first or next marathon within a set time, turn to our race time predictor to see how you, based on your recent training, may fare over 26.2 miles – or any distance, for that matter. Simply insert a recent race time, along with your current weekly mileage, into the online calculator to see your predicted finish time.
With the race time predictor, keep in mind that it will only provide an estimate marathon result. Plenty of variables play into a 26.2-mile race, especially in the latter miles when the fatigue starts to kick in.
Use a recent 10K time
You can also estimate your marathon finish time using the result you achieved at a recent 10K race. As backed by Tom Craggs, RW columnist and national endurance manager for England Athletics, this predication process involves multiplying your 10K finish time by 5, then subtracting 10 minutes. Although this estimation is only really valid if you set your 10K time within your current marathon training cycle and were working at the same race-day effort, Craggs believes that there is merit in this method.
Use the Yasso 800s formula
An alternative to the above is to use a workout masterminded by Runner's World's own Bart Yasso. Yasso 800s aims to offer an accurate prediction of your marathon time based on a relatively straightforward track workout. You run 10 x 800m and your time in minutes per rep is meant to correspond with your time in hours for the marathon.
So if you ran your 800m reps in 3mins 20secs, you may be able to run a 3hrs 20mins marathon. The time between reps should be kept the same as your rep time (in the case above, 3mins 20secs). It’s not a perfect formula – many commentators think that it’s entirely possible to nail a Yasso 800s sessions but fail to run a corresponding marathon time – but it remains a classic workout and another potential way of predicting your likely marathon time.
Use a long training run
According to Movold, when it comes to thinking about a finish time for your first marathon, the most important thing is to focus on a realistic time range versus a specific time. ‘I recommend that first-timers take their longest training run – which is hopefully 20 miles – and think about how that pace felt,’ she says. ‘Then, plus and minus 10 seconds [per mile] to your time, in both directions, and build that out to the marathon distance.’
Say, for example, you ran at a pace of 10:00 min/mile for a 20-mile training run – this would translate to somewhere between a 4:18 and 4:33 marathon. Then, round that up to a half-hour range – so, 4:15 to 4:45. ‘That big range sets you up for success and gives you some padding for things like stopping to hug your family at mile 20,’ says Woods.
If you do your long training runs at a pace that feels truly slow for you, then you could subtract about 45 to 60 seconds [per mile] from your long run pace to figure out your goal pace on marathon day.
What else should I think about beyond time goals?
When you prepare for a marathon, try not to fixate solely on a target finish time. Doing so enforces the kind of black-and-white thinking that can make you look at the event as either a success or a failure, depending on whether you met your time goal.
‘I don’t ever want a first-time marathoner to be disappointed when they finish, just because they didn’t hit this made-up time goal that doesn’t actually mean anything,’ says Woods. ‘Finishing is always a great accomplishment.’
Thinking only about the outcome is limiting and can rob you of the holistic first-ever marathon experience. ‘It narrows the possibilities of victory – and there are so many personal victories you can celebrate in a marathon that have nothing to do with your finish time,’ adds Movold.
A good rule of thumb is to go into a marathon with three non-time-based goals in mind that can help you to feel proud of your race, no matter what the finish clock says. Here are a few examples:
Consider that finish-line feeling
First, think about how you want to feel at the finish line.
‘Someone who wants to feel super happy at the end, as though it was the best day ever, is going to have different goals than someone who wants to feel like they tried their best and that there’s no gas left in the tank,’ says Woods. If you just want to feel proud of the effort you gave, think about what it will take to make you feel that way.
Pay attention to your mental dialogue
A marathon is as much of a mental undertaking as it is a physical one. As such, a non-time-based goal might be addressing how you’ll handle things when it gets hard.
‘My favourite goal is to successfully talk yourself through a tough moment,’ says Movold. ‘Whether that’s positive self-talk, giving yourself 30 seconds to walk and reset, or working together with someone else on the course, the goal is to get back to it without giving up on yourself.’
Skills like positive self-talk take practice, so that’s something you can incorporate into your training.
Think about your overall race strategy
Your goals can still be performance-based, even without a specific time in mind. ‘Maybe your goal is to run the second half stronger than the first half of the race,’ says Woods. That’s called negative splitting a race and it’s how most world records are set. ‘Or maybe your goal is to not walk at all, or not to walk until mile 10, or only to walk through water stations.’
A first marathon is a bit like a blank slate, too. ‘Because so many things can happen, it’s all just one big learning moment,’ says Woods. Not having a specific time goal keeps you from being disappointed if you run a 4:05 instead of a sub-4:00 marathon, for instance, and allows you to really appreciate everything that goes into covering that distance.
Once you’ve crossed the finish line, you can also use your first marathon as a benchmark. ‘After the race, you have all this opportunity to reflect,’ says Movold ‘“Did I like that? What did I do well? What could I improve? Do I want to try again?” Setting a goal marathon finish time becomes much more precise once you’ve done one, because now you have a frame of reference. But when you don’t have a starting point, let time motivate you rather than defeat you.’
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