History's biggest weather forecasting blunders

In the eye of the storm

Despite having an arsenal of weather apps at our fingertips, the elements still have a way of surprising us. But we’re not the only ones caught off guard – even seasoned meteorologists get it wrong. From forecasting blunders and miscommunication to unexpected atmospheric twists, we explore some of the most memorable weather events that defied predictions – leaving experts scrambling and the public reeling.

Read on to discover the biggest forecasting fails throughout history... 

1888: The Schoolhouse Blizzard, USA

After enjoying mild weather, rural communities in the northwest plains of the US were caught tragically ill-prepared as chilling winds and a snowstorm hit them with no warning. It was reported that the temperature fell nearly 37°C (100°F) in just 24 hours on 12 January 1888.

It’s thought 235 people died from hypothermia, many of them children and farm workers making their way home in the perilous conditions. According to reports, the Army Signal Corps (who were then tasked with weather reporting) chose not to issue a cold wave warning the previous night.

1888: Another unexpected blizzard, USA

Another calamitous and unexpected blizzard struck the country later that winter on the east coast. On 10 March 1888, the weather turned deadly, with heavy snow and cold winds leaving many workers stranded and freezing to death. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), more than four hundred people died – with half of those deaths in New York City alone.

Along with its previous failure to issue a cold wave warning, the meteorological service was moved out of the war department to improve 'forecasting and preparedness'. Two years later, the Weather Bureau was created under the Department of Agriculture.

1922: Knickerbocker Storm, Washington DC, USA

On the evening of 27 January, the so-called 'Knickerbocker Storm' saw nearly two and a half feet (0.7m) of snow fall on Washington DC in just over 24 hours – a record for a single storm.

The huge snowstorm came as a complete surprise to the capital, thanks to local forecasts predicting mild weather just the day before. The storm was named after the Knickerbocker Theater, whose roof collapsed under the weight of the snow, killing 98 people and injuring 133 more.

1925: Tri-State Tornado, USA

A lack of warning from weather forecasters made this tornado one of the deadliest in US history. On 18 March 1925, it tore through Missouri, southern Illinois and southwestern Indiana, claiming 695 lives and leaving thousands homeless.

The weather forecast that day had predicted nothing unusual. At the time, the word 'tornado' was banned from US weather forecasts – a policy introduced in the late 19th century to avoid causing panic. This ban remained in place until the 1950s.

1948: Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes, Oklahoma, USA

A pivotal moment in US weather history occurred on 20 March 1948, when a tornado struck Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma, causing over $10 million in damage. In response, the base's commanding general tasked his meteorologists with finding a way to prevent such destruction in the future.

Noticing that conditions five days later mirrored those recorded on 20 March, they issued the nation's first official tornado forecast. Just hours later, another tornado did indeed hit the airbase, proving the prediction correct. This paved the way for improved forecasting, and in 1952, the Weather Bureau established the Severe Local Storms (SELS) unit.

1953: Storm of the century, England, UK and the Netherlands

The great storm of 1953, which saw a storm surge inundate the eastern coast of England and the Netherlands, was Britain's worst peacetime disaster on record. More than 2,500 people were killed around the North Sea coastline, including 307 in England and 19 in Scotland.

The Met Office and its Dutch counterpart did forecast dangerously high water levels several hours before – but it was the lack of public warning systems that led to high casualties. An inquiry into the disaster recommended a flood warning organisation should be set up. This led to the creation of the Storm Tide Warning Service and eventually the construction of the Thames Barrier.

1967: Chicago Blizzard, Illinois, USA

Despite just a few inches of snow being predicted, Chicago shivered in nearly two foot (0.6m) of the stuff during a winter storm in January 1967. Caught by surprise, the blizzard paralysed the city, leaving around eight hundred buses and 50,000 cars abandoned on the city's streets and forcing the closure of O'Hare Airport.

Many commuters didn't make it home and were forced to stay in hotels or at work. By the Friday morning the city's streets were impassable, with helicopters needed to deliver essential supplies to hospitals.

1970: Surprise snowstorm, England, UK

Central and southeast England was blasted by an unforeseen snowstorm on 4 March 1970 with very little warning from weather forecasters. The Met Office only issued snow alerts in the early hours of the morning, leaving most people unprepared for the 12-18 inches (30-46cm) of heavy snow that fell in 10 hours and blocked roads, leaving many motorists stranded.

1976: 'Minister for Rain' ends a heatwave, UK

After experiencing a record-breaking heatwave in 1976 – marked by wall-to-wall blue skies, searing sunshine and no hint of rain from May until August – the UK faced severe drought conditions, with genuine concerns about water supplies running out. In response, the government appointed the country’s first-ever Minister for Drought, Denis Howell, to tackle the crisis.

However, his tenure took an ironic turn almost immediately. Just a day after his appointment, the heavens opened, bringing heavy rain and putting an abrupt end to the dry spell – just in time for a soggy August bank holiday weekend. Unsurprisingly, he was swiftly nicknamed the 'Minister for Rain'.

1985: Hurricane Elena, Mississippi, USA

Even with today’s advanced technology, meteorologists can still miscalculate hurricane tracks by an average of one hundred miles (161km). In late August 1985, Hurricane Elena proved particularly frustrating for forecasters with its unpredictable path, triggering multiple evacuations along the US Gulf Coast before veering off course yet again.

When it eventually made landfall in Biloxi, Mississippi, as a Category 3 hurricane, it caused nine deaths and $1.3 billion in damage. However, it was its erratic behaviour rather than its intensity that made Elena so disruptive. According to NOAA, the storm’s constantly shifting forecast led to what was, at the time, the largest peacetime evacuation in US history.

1987: The Great Storm, UK

With rumours of an imminent hurricane famously dismissed by BBC weatherman Michael Fish, the devastating Great Storm of 1987 struck in the early hours of 16 October, wreaking havoc across the UK. During his forecast on 15 October, Fish reassured viewers, "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you’re watching, don’t worry – there isn’t!"

Technically, he was correct that it wasn’t an official hurricane, but the storm’s 100 miles per hour+ (161km/h) winds proved catastrophic, leading to 18 deaths, a capsized ship and the loss of around 15 million trees. The Met Office did issue severe weather warnings to various agencies and emergency services. However, by the time most people went to bed, the exceptionally strong winds had not been mentioned in radio or TV weather broadcasts, leaving the public largely unprepared.

2004: Hurricane Charley, Florida, USA

This violent tropical storm posed a major challenge for US meteorologists, who struggled to predict its intensity as it rapidly strengthened just off the Florida coast. Hurricane Charley underwent rapid intensification, surging from a Category 2 to a Category 4 storm in just five hours on the morning of its landfall.

It made landfall at peak intensity near Cayo Costa, Florida, with winds of 150 miles per hour (241km/h), causing extensive damage across the Florida Peninsula. Charley went on to become one of the costliest hurricanes in US history.

2004: Boscastle flood, England, UK

A lack of warning left the Cornish fishing village of Boscastle unprepared when, on 17 August 2004, a powerful torrent of water swept through, destroying buildings and carrying cars away. Although heavy rain had been forecast, only a flood watch – the lowest level of alert – had been issued.

After the disaster, a Met Office forecaster explained that the extreme weather had developed unpredictably, as inland and coastal air masses converged, rose and triggered intense rainfall. The village suffered millions of pounds’ worth of damage, but remarkably, no lives were lost.

2009: Barbecue summer, UK

The British public’s hopes for a ‘barbecue summer’ were well and truly extinguished in 2009 as rain and wind took hold. In April, the Met Office issued a long-range forecast predicting a sunny season, boldly declaring that the UK was 'odds-on for a barbecue summer'.

However, as the weeks passed, holidaymakers found themselves facing a soggy summer instead. The Met Office was forced to revise its forecast, downgrading expectations to 'unsettled' weather. The British media had a field day, mocking the agency by dubbing it the 'Wet Office'. In response to criticism, the Met Office defended its position, stating, 'Seasonal forecasting is still a new science. It's something we are still building on'.

2009: Cold snap, UK

Another blow to the Met Office’s long-range forecasting came later in 2009, when the UK endured its coldest winter in more than 30 years –despite the agency predicting only a one-in-seven chance of a colder-than-average season.

Following this and the ‘barbecue summer’ debacle, the Met Office quietly dropped public announcements of its seasonal forecasts. While short-term weather predictions have become far more reliable, long-term forecasting remains a challenge – particularly for Britain, where its size and geographical position make conditions notoriously difficult to predict.

2009: Drought, India

Predicting India’s monsoon season is notoriously difficult, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) still faces criticism for failing to foresee what became the country’s worst drought in nearly four decades. In 2009, the IMD predicted that the monsoon would arrive on time and at normal levels, giving farmers the confidence to sow their crops as usual.

However, the rains were both delayed and below expected levels, devastating seeds, crops and entire farming communities. In response to the failure, the IMD later partnered with some of the world’s leading meteorological agencies to improve the accuracy of monsoon forecasting.

2010: Typhoon Conson, Philippines

A high-profile dismissal followed after Filipino weather forecasters failed to warn the public that a typhoon was set to strike Manila. Typhoon Conson hit the densely populated capital on 14 July, killing 111 people and causing widespread structural damage.

In the aftermath, President Benigno Aquino III publicly criticised the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) for its forecasting failures. As a result, the agency’s chief, Prisco Nilo, was removed from office. Nilo defended PAGASA, citing low budgets and inadequate equipment as key reasons for the inaccurate predictions.

2010-11: Cold winter, UK

Sometimes, authorities and meteorological agencies choose not to share weather forecasts with the public. According to The Telegraph, the Met Office privately warned the UK government in October 2010 that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter. However, this information was withheld from the public due to backlash over previous long-range forecasting errors.

A public warning was eventually issued just days before snow and ice swept across much of the country, causing widespread travel disruption and traffic chaos.

2012: Superstorm Sandy, USA

It’s acknowledged that meteorologists largely got the forecast right for Hurricane Sandy, which tore up the Atlantic Coast from the Caribbean in October 2012 before transitioning into a so-called superstorm. However, the way the storm was classified may have influenced how the public responded.

Following protocol, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) chose not to issue hurricane warnings north of North Carolina once Sandy transformed into an unusual hybrid storm. This decision led to miscommunication and confusion among authorities issuing public alerts, causing people to underestimate the storm’s severity.

2014: Brisbane hailstorm, Queensland, Australia

A lack of sufficient warning gave residents no time to hunker down or evacuate when a super cell storm slammed into the city of Brisbane on 27 November. The violent weather, with its powerful wind gusts, torrential rain and enormous hailstones, caused huge amounts of damage to cars, homes and high-rise buildings. While a storm had been forecast earlier that day, its ferocity had been completely underestimated.

2015: Tropical Storm Erika, Caribbean

Further evidence of the challenges in forecasting erratic tropical storms came with Tropical Storm Erika in late August 2015, which battered parts of the Caribbean with heavy rain. Forecasters predicted that Erika would strengthen into a hurricane and make landfall in the US, prompting a state of emergency in Florida, pre-emptive flight cancellations and school closures.

While the storm proved devastating in Dominica, where flash flooding and mudslides made it one of the island’s deadliest and most destructive natural disasters, Erika ultimately dissipated over eastern Cuba, sparing Florida entirely.

2015: Blizzard no-show, New York, USA

In 2015, a forecasted blizzard of epic proportions failed to materialise in New York City. In what is now an infamous weather blunder, the storm shifted about 15 miles (24km) east, sparing the city from the worst of its impact.

Mayor Bill de Blasio had warned, "This could be the biggest snowstorm in the history of this city. My message for New Yorkers is: prepare for something worse than we have ever seen before." In response, authorities imposed a driving ban and, for the first time ever, shut the subway. In the end, New Yorkers were left with little more than an anti-climactic dusting – just five inches (12.7cm) fell in Central Park.

2015: Forest fires, Indonesia

In 2015, Indonesia’s government admitted that its weather agency had failed to accurately predict the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which led to an extended dry spell and a devastating fire season.

The country experienced exceptionally intense forest fires, fuelled by the extreme drought conditions caused by El Niño – a weather pattern driven by the warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. The blazes produced a thick haze that blanketed parts of Southeast Asia for months and have since been linked to hundreds of thousands of respiratory illnesses and deaths.

2017: Hurricane Maria, Caribbean

A severe Cape Verde hurricane that devastated the island of Dominica then Puerto Rico in September 2017 caught forecasters off-guard as it rapidly intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm within a 15-hour period.

According to NOAA, weather forecasting models failed to anticipate Maria’s rare and rapid intensification on 18 September, which led to it under-predicting the storm’s strengthening.

2017: Hurricane Patricia, Mexico

The unprecedented strength of this weather system had meteorologists agog in 2017. Reaching maximum sustained winds of 215 miles per hour (346km/h) in the eastern Pacific Ocean, it was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere.

A hurricane scientist for the National Hurricane Centre posted on social media: 'For posterity – 200mph for a #hurricane – never seen that in modern satellite era!' It made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico on 23 October, with winds of 165 miles per hour (265km/h), but thankfully weakened extremely quickly.

2017: Cyclone Cook, New Zealand

A forecasting misstep in New Zealand triggered panic buying, school and office closures and a mass exodus from Auckland after meteorologists warned that Cyclone Cook would be the most severe storm to hit the city in 50 years.

However, by late afternoon, the weather warning was lifted as Cook narrowly bypassed the city, leaving Aucklanders bracing for a storm that never arrived.

2018: Bank holiday blunder, UK

Tourists were left frustrated after the BBC’s weather app incorrectly forecast rain over the May bank holiday weekend in 2018. Despite predictions of a 60% chance of thunderstorms, the weather turned out to be warm and sunny. However, many beachgoers had already scrapped their plans, leaving coastal resorts like Bournemouth and Brighton quieter than expected.

The forecasting blunder came shortly after the BBC switched from the Met Office to MeteoGroup for its weather predictions, prompting criticism over the accuracy of its new provider.

2019: Guadalajara hailstorm, Mexico

In a bizarre weather event, Guadalajara – one of Mexico’s most populous cities – went from basking in sunshine to being buried under nearly six feet (1.5m) of ice in 2019.

The freak hailstorm left vehicles submerged, damaged hundreds of homes and businesses and toppled trees across the city. The unexpected deluge was caused by a slow-moving thunderstorm, turning the streets into a surreal winter-like landscape in the middle of summer.

2019: Weather bomb, Greece

Gale-force winds, torrential rain, hail and intense lightning strikes caught everyone off guard, including weather forecasters, in the northern region of Halkidiki in Greece, when an unusual weather system swept in suddenly on a July evening. The so-called 'weather bomb' lasted just 20 minutes but caused extensive damage and led to seven deaths.

2020: Nashville tornadoes, Tennessee, USA

The fatalities caused by two tornadoes that tore through central Tennessee, including Nashville, in March 2020 have been linked to a lack of warning. While meteorologists were tracking the line of destructive storms, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center had placed Nashville in only a 'slight' risk zone for severe weather the day before.

The tornado, which struck downtown late at night, was later classified as an EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, meaning it produced significant damage with wind speeds between 136–165 miles per hour (219–266km/h). A meteorologist later explained to the press that severe storms like these "usually don’t offer us as much lead time because the tornadoes happen quickly and then they are gone."

2022: The storm that never came, Hungary

St. Stephen’s Day, Hungary’s national holiday, is a time for strolling through Budapest’s sun-drenched streets before gathering along the Danube to watch one of Europe’s largest fireworks displays. But in August 2022, forecasters predicted a severe storm, leading to the last-minute cancellation of the fireworks just hours before they were set to begin.

At the eleventh hour, however, the storm changed course, striking eastern Hungary instead – while Budapest remained completely clear. Furious at the unnecessary cancellation, would-be revellers vented their frustration, and the Hungarian government responded by firing the two chiefs of its meteorological service.

2023: The heatwave that fizzled out, UK

In July 2023, much of Europe was on edge after forecasts predicted a scorching heatwave with temperatures soaring above 40°C (104°F). People cleared supermarkets of bottled water and sunscreen and even postponed travel plans to avoid the supposed heat.

But in the UK, where temperatures were expected to climb to record-breaking highs, it turned out to be a mild week with cloudy skies and the occasional drizzle. It left many frustrated and wondering how the 'experts' got it so wrong.

2023: Glastonbury's mud-free panic, England, UK

Festival-goers attending Glastonbury in June 2023 were warned to prepare for a weekend of torrential downpours, prompting many to invest in wellies, ponchos and waterproofs. Social media was full of jokes about Glastonbury’s infamous mud pits returning with a vengeance.

But instead of rain, the festival basked in sunshine and warm weather, leaving attendees drenched in sweat rather than rain. Shops nearby were left with shelves stacked high with unsold wet-weather gear.

2024: Edinburgh’s Hogmanay hype, Scotland, UK

Revellers heading to Edinburgh for the famous Hogmanay celebrations in December 2024 were told to brace for blizzard-like conditions, with some travel services pre-emptively cancelled due to safety concerns.

However, the supposed storm barely brought a flurry, and the celebrations went ahead under clear skies. Tourists stuck at home lamented their decision to heed the warnings, while those who made it to the event enjoyed an unexpectedly crisp and starry night.

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