Who’s going to win Great British Bake Off, based on actual science

Grab a tray bake, a big spoon and something to wipe the chocolate off your chin, because this, right here, is a spoiler on who will win Great British Bake Off.

Well, we say spoiler, there’s guesswork going on, but it is based on science, so it’s almost definitely correct.

The system is this: competitors get ten points for each week that they have won Star Baker, and five points for any week where Paul and Mary put them in their ‘potential Star Bakers’ category at the end of the show.

Like Paul Hollywood examining a soggy bottom though, we look at the negatives too, which means our competitors get minus five points for each week that they were one of Paul and Mary’s potentials to go home.

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[The best innuendos on Bake-Off. We went there]

We then add up the final total, and you might as well get down to William Hill, because this is a dead cert* right here.

*Not remotely, please don’t sue us

Fifth Place: Beca Lyne-Perkis

Identifying features: Welsh; funny; cracking fringe.
Series Stats:
Star Baker: Never
One of Paul and Mary’s favourites: Once (Week 7)
One of Paul and Mary’s least favourites: Once (Week 2)
Total: 0

Verdict: An outside bet, but hey - so was John Whaite and that didn’t go so badly.

Forth Place: Kimberley Wilson

Identifying features: Big flavours; big smile.
Series Stats:
Star Baker: Once
One of Paul and Mary’s favourites: Once (Week 2)
One of Paul and Mary’s least favourites: Once (Week 5)
Total: 10

Verdict: Kimberley! What happened? At what point she was so far ahead, we thought she might just sit down and pour herself a gin while everyone else legged it around piping stuff and injecting their choux buns. But she’s dipped over the weeks and others have zoomed ahead.

Third Place: Ruby Tandoh

Identifying features: Brilliant facial expressions (click here for evidence); general belief that all her bakes are rubbish, even the ones Paul Hollywood dribbles over.
Series Stats:
Star Baker: Once
One of Paul and Mary’s favourites: Twice (Weeks 3 and 4)
One of Paul and Mary’s least favourites: Twice (Weeks 1 and 5)
Total: 10

Verdict: Ah, Ruby. Often to be found winging it - all wide-eyed and ‘I had an exam this week’ - and then baking something so perfect, we’re sure we saw Christine being restrained from throwing a macaroon at her head by Mel and Sue. Science puts her in 3rd, we’d say she might do even better.

Second Place: Christine Wallace*
*In a shock exit our scientific plan got a bit of a knock this week, with Christine getting sent home in fifth place. But the exception proves the rule, right?

Identifying features: Mum of the group; can be found telling Mel and Sue a little story about her husband’s Spotted Dick.
Series stats:
Star Baker: Twice
One of Paul and Mary’s favourites: Never
One of Paul and Mary’s least favourites: Never
Total: 20

Verdict: This year’s Brendan! Oh, but Brendan didn’t win. If Christine’s going to avoid the same fate, she needs to upgrade the traditional puds, because this is Bake Off, and we demand more. *Takes sideways glance at Frances’ vinyl record*

First Place: Frances Quinn

Identifying features: Makes things look nice; has a good bob.
Series Stats:
Star Baker: Once (Week 7)
One of Paul and Mary’s favourites: Three times (Weeks 1, 3 and 6)
One of Paul and Mary’s least favourites: Never
Total: 25

Verdict: Ever since that one time she made something that looked fancy, but was a bit bland, Frances has been plagued with a ‘style over substance’ tag. But look at those stats, and you’ll see that actually, Frances has loads of substance. Plus when it comes to the final and everyone’s baking is brilliant, she can build Buckingham Palace out of steak and kidney pies, and who doesn’t want to see that? A likely winner.

Who is your prediction for champion this season? Tell us over on Twitter.