GLP-1 Users Are Spending Way Less on Groceries and Fast Food, According to a New Study

Ozempic, Mounjaro, and other glucagon-like peptide-1 medications, otherwise known as GLP-1s, are changing how Americans shop for groceries.

In early January, Food & Wine published a story about how food companies are releasing all-new products or reimagining the marketing of old ones to appeal to more GLP-1 users who may be looking for specific nutrition needs like high-protein, high-fiber foods. In that story, we mentioned one tiny but important research paper by Cornell University that showed that households with at least one GLP-1 user are significantly reducing their grocery spending. But what, specifically, are they spending less on?

In the paper, published on December 27, 2024, the researchers noted that they reached this conclusion after examining data from Numerator. Numerator links survey responses from 150,000 households on GLP-1 medication adoption and timing to food purchases to provide a representative panel of households in the United States. Importantly, its survey also took into account "off-label users," aka those people who are not visible in insurance claims data as their medications are purchased out of pocket, giving a more "comprehensive understanding of adoption trends."

Related: Foods Labeled ‘GLP-1 Friendly’ Are Coming to a Freezer Aisle Near You

After looking at transaction data, the team used a "difference-in-differences" framework to compare GLP-1 adopters and non-adopters and found that, on average, adopters reduced their grocery spending by 5.5% in the first six months, while higher-income households had a "notably larger reduction, averaging 8.6%."

The researchers then took it one step further by analyzing 40 product categories to see where GLP-1 users are spending more and less. They found that the largest reductions were in the ultra-processed categories, including "snack foods, sweets, and other calorie-dense items," along with other goods often associated with "impulse purchases," like chips and sweets.

But the reductions in spending didn't stop there. According to the analysis, GLP-1 users also showed a decline in "food-away-from-home expenditures." The researchers found that users declined their spending at limited-service restaurants, including fast food chains and coffee shops, with the "most pronounced" reductions during breakfast and dinner times.

Related: Smoothie King's 5 New Drinks Are Aimed at GLP-1 Users

However, GLP-1 users did show increases in spending in some grocery store areas. Specifically, the analysis shows that "nutrient-dense options, such as yogurt, fresh produce, and nutrition bars," were the "least affected" by the changes in purchasing. As Food & Wine reported, this is likely why so many brands are going all-in on their protein-rich foods.

Perhaps most importantly, the research showed that this may not be a passing fad. It analyzed purchasing data 12 months into GLP-1 users' journeys and found that while the magnitude of reductions plateaus at around six months, it remains "negative and statistically significant" a full year later.

"Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly reshape consumer food demand," the team wrote, adding that it's "a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as adoption continues to grow."

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