Forget keto — Ozempic might finally kill the low-carb diet trend
A new report suggests GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic could be overtaking keto in popularity.
GLP-1 drugs, which may lead to significant weight loss, are changing consumer habits.
But high costs and limited access to GLP-1s keep low-carb diets relevant.
Hold the butter — the rise of weight-loss medications may be signaling an end to popular high-fat, low-carb diets.
Citing Google Trends data, The New Consumer and Coefficient Capital said in a new report that Google search interest in the US for the term "Ozempic" overtook search interest for "keto" in June.
The keto diet, which generally instructs people to get 70% to 80% of their daily calories from fat sources and as little as 5% from carbs, has been a dominant force in the diet world for over a decade. Along the way, consumers' hunger for low-carb alternatives to their favorite treats has sparked a massive market of ostensibly better-for-you snacks, such as zero-sugar candy and high-protein chips and cookies.
The global market for keto products was valued at more than $9 billion in 2019. But among Americans, interest appears to have stalled out in recent years: In surveys commissioned by the International Food Information Council, the share of self-identified dieters who reported following a keto or high-fat diet in the past year dropped to 4% in 2023 from 7% in 2022.
At the same time, Ozempic has emerged. A brand name for the drug semaglutide, Ozempic has become synonymous with a class of medications called GLP-1s that have been associated with significant weight loss.
As keto fades away, it's making room for a lucrative market catering to GLP-1 users' appetites.
Some doctors have called keto the worst diet for health
Though it hit its stride in the mid-2010s, the keto diet has been around for at least a century.
Whether branded as Atkins or Zone or just called low-carb, keto promised that you could shed pounds and boost health by eating foods conventional wisdom had forbidden, such as juicy cheeseburgers or steaks slathered in butter.
But doctors say the diet has major drawbacks, and U.S. News & World Report has consistently deemed keto one of the worst diets for healthy eating.
Eating too much saturated fat and cholesterol has been linked to a higher risk of heart disease and other illnesses. Consuming processed meats like sausages and ham has been tied to higher odds of developing cancer. Both saturated fat and processed meats are popular in low-carb diet variations like "dirty keto" that are full of junk food.
Still, the allure of losing weight while eating bacon and burgers has persisted, and research suggests low-carb diets show promise for controlling blood-sugar levels, managing diabetes, and aiding weight loss.
Weight-loss meds offer a new way to stop cravings and shed pounds
The Food and Drug Administration in 2021 approved semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, as a weight-management treatment.
The New Consumer report estimated that 8 million to 20 million Americans were using some type of GLP-1 medication and suggested another 25 million to 50 million people could start using the medications over the next few years.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic various hormones that naturally occur in the human body to help regulate appetite.
People who take the medications say they help combat "food noise," a persistent preoccupation with food and eating that can make long-term dieting difficult. GLP-1s can even make treats like fried foods or sweets seem less delicious.
The drugs are changing the way people eat, and the food industry is taking note. A survey included in the report suggested that people taking GLP-1s were more likely than other respondents to say they frequently tried new grocery products and splurged on more-expensive items.
But low-carb diets still have a major advantage over Ozempic
While semaglutide and other GLP-1s have been called a "game changer" for weight loss, they're still unavailable to many people who might benefit from them.
The medications, which sometimes aren't covered by insurance, can cost $1,000 or more a month, making affordability a big barrier for people seeking GLP-1 treatment. Frequent shortages have also prompted a booming gray market for compounded GLP-1s, which the FDA has warned can be ineffective and risky.
Even the brand-name drugs come with side effects, most commonly mild to moderate symptoms like nausea or vomiting.
In contrast, a major draw of low-carb diets is ease of access, offering a way for people to improve their health at home without a doctor's visit, dietitian-approved meal plan, or calorie-counting app.
Combined with an emerging trend of food as medicine, tackling health issues at the grocery store instead of the pharmacy is still attractive to many people.
Ozempic's star is still rising, but as long as the steep costs and healthcare hurdles persist, low-carb diets are likely to linger.
Correction: July 24, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misrepresented a keto-related finding of a survey. The survey, from the International Food Information Council, found that the share of respondents who said they'd followed a keto diet fell by 3 percentage points, to 4%, from 2022 to 2023; it did not fall by 4% in 2023.
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