EU experts warn: Emerging avian flu mutations could adapt to humans and increase risks
Avian influenza viruses pose a growing threat, with the potential to adapt to humans and trigger future pandemics, according to a new report by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Food Safey Authority (EFSA).
“Global developments demand that we stay alert and make sure Europe is prepared to respond to the threat of avian influenza,” said Pamela Rendi-Wagner, ECDC Director.
She added that having strong preparedness plans in place is essential to protect public health in Europe.
The study identified 34 key mutations in avian influenza viruses that may increase the likelihood of human infection, requiring rapid detection and response.
These mutations can improve adaptation to mammals, facilitate mammal-to-mammal transmission, and lead to occasional human infections, raising concerns about the virus' potential to adapt to humans and trigger a global pandemic, the agencies said.
“In 2024, avian influenza viruses expanded their reach, infecting previously unaffected species,” said Bernhard Url, EFSA acting executive director.
Health experts are increasingly concerned as bird flu cases continue to rise among wild birds worldwide, particularly in the US, where an outbreak among poultry and dairy cows has resulted in 67 confirmed human cases and one death.
The clade responsible for these cases is H5N1 and while it is spread among birds and some mammals, it is uncommon among humans and no human-to-human transmission has been reported so far.
Almost all the cases are linked to direct or indirect exposure to infected animals or contaminated environments.
Since its first detection in 1997, this clade has been responsible for 954 human cases or detections, with cases reported in 24 countries. No human cases have been detected in Europe, a European Commission spokesperson told Euronews.
Critical for animals
The situation affecting animals is more concerning, however. Between September and December 2024, 657 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus detections were reported in domestic and wild birds across 27 countries in Europe.
The detection of the H5N1 clade among domestic animals living in farms, such as an outbreak that affected cats in Poland, increases the risk of human infections.
This clade has also affected dogs in Canada, Italy and Poland, farmed fur animals in Spain and Finland and is especially spread between dairy cattle in the US.
Some countries have taken national measures to address their outbreaks. In Spain, the agriculture ministry declared high risk for avian influenza and banned the keeping of ducks and geese with other poultry species, as well as the outdoor keeping of poultry.
“With regard to animal health, the Commission supports national authorities with prevention, containment, control and eradication of the disease in poultry,” the Commission spokesperson added.
To ensure member states can prevent and respond to possible outbreak, the Commission is ensuring medical countermeasures are in place, according to the spokesperson, with three joint procurement contracts to purchase pandemic influenza vaccines already in place.
In June 2024, the EU purchased 665,000 doses of pre-pandemic avian influenza vaccine and took an option on 40 million doses over the next four years.
However, European agencies warn that if zoonotic influenza vaccination is introduced, it should be part of a broader, comprehensive outbreak management strategy.
To reduce the risk of spillover events - where the virus jumps to humans - livestock breeding should be carefully planned. This includes lowering the density of commercial farms with highly susceptible species, such as poultry and farmed mammals, according to the joint ECDC and EFSA study.
