The Dune 2 delay is a disaster for cinemas – and it could get worse
August is the month that traditionally proves the biggest challenge for cinema operators. After all, studios already released their major titles at the start of the summer holiday period, and now we must contend with the leftovers: a motley collection of smaller and mid-size films fighting for box office scraps.
With respect to Universal’s horror comedy The Blackening and Disney’s well-reviewed mockumentary Theater Camp – which both hit UK cinemas for the bank holiday weekend, charting respectively in ninth and 15th place in the box office chart – these are not major titles ever likely to have delivered blockbuster-size numbers in the UK.
But despite the relative box office doldrums traditionally experienced during the dog days of summer, cinema operators in fact have plenty to be cheerful right now. This Friday will see data gatherer Comscore announce total UK and Ireland box office for the month of August, and numbers are likely to show an uptick of around 70 per cent on August 2022. Outside the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it’s been distinctly rare for a month to show such a large increase on the equivalent period from the previous year.
Comscore will also announce total UK and Ireland box office for the first eight months of the year (January to August), and the number is likely to show a 10 per cent increase on the equivalent period of 2022. When you consider that June ended with 2023 running 7 per cent behind 2022, that’s a remarkable recovery of fortune in just two months. Of course, we have Barbie and Oppenheimer – both released in late July, and so far delivering a combined £142 million UK and Ireland box office – to thank for that.
With UK and Ireland multiplexes anticipating a flood of admissions this coming Saturday (September 2) for National Cinema Day, it’s an optimistic moment for the sector. Or at least it would be, were it not for one very dark cloud portending trouble ahead.
At the CineEurope trade convention in Barcelona in June, leading executives were asked what would make a successful year. “Solving the writers’ strike” was the pithy reply of Tim Richards, founder and CEO of major cinema chain Vue International. Well, the writers’ strike is not solved, and it’s been joined by the screen actors’ strike – an industrial dispute that’s even more damaging to Hollywood.
The strike doesn’t – yet – impact the flow of product, but the inability of studios to use actors in their promo campaigns is a big problem for them. That’s why Warner Bros last month announced that it would delay tennis-themed romantic drama Challengers – starring Zendaya opposite Josh O’Connor and Mike Faist – from September 2023 to spring 2024. Then, much more impactfully, last week the studio decided that Dune 2 (which had been set for November release) should follow suit.
Rob Mitchell, director of theatrical insights at Gower Street Analytics (which uses algorithms to advise film studios how to optimally choose release dates for films), explains the reasoning behind the date move for Challengers. “The film is not based on existing intellectual property,” he says. “The selling point on that movie is Zendaya. How do you sell it without Zendaya selling it?” Well, indeed.
Dune 2 is a different case, because there’s already a big audience that saw – and liked – 2021’s Dune, which grossed $402 million in cinemas globally and £22.1 million in the UK and Ireland. However, not having Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and other cast members participate in a global tour would be a big miss – and Warner Bros evidently concurs.
From Mitchell’s perspective, the worst possible titles for cinemas to lose from the 2023 calendar are Wonka for the UK (currently dated December 15), and The Marvels globally (dated November 10).
“If Wonka is not in the Christmas holiday corridor, that would have a big negative impact,” he explains – given the film’s strong selling points including Roald Dahl, the world of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, and from the director of Paddington (Paul King).
But it’s The Marvels that feels more at risk as a 2023 release – and the situation is complicated by the position of Deadpool 3, which is the subsequent release for the MCU (Marvel Cinematic Universe). Deadpool 3, currently dated for a May 2024 release, saw shooting suspended in July because of the Hollywood actors’ strike. Given how effects-heavy Marvel films typically are, it could prove tough to have the film ready for May unless shooting can restart soon.
“The longer the strike drags on, the less likely it seems Deadpool 3 will be ready,” explains Mitchell. “But they’re not going to want to lose that May date, because that first weekend in May is, like, Marvel weekend. That’s the weekend they go for the big Marvel films.”
If it becomes clear that Deadpool 3 won’t be ready, Disney may be tempted to move The Marvels into the slot.
“That might work for Disney,” comments Mitchell, “but that’s certainly not going to be good for cinemas.”
