Don’t write off cinema shares despite Warner’s straight-to-streaming move
When they make the Covid movie, the soundtrack for the bit we’re in now would be upbeat. Excitable strings; a jolly glockenspiel, perhaps.
But the mood music for cinemas is grim. Think funeral bells and Hammer Horror organs.
The movie theatre business is one of those whose very existence has been called into doubt by the pandemic.
Structural change from technology has left it facing its biggest threat since VHS or cable TV as studios team up with the streaming giants to get their products directly into people’s homes.
The tech has been there for a while, but there’s been a tense standoff between the theatres and the studios.
Cinemas know the studios need them to get the big revenues, and have succeeded in negotiating the three month window of exclusivity before films go to streaming.
But with theatres now crippled by the lack of movie releases and lockdowns, studios are dictating terms, culminating in Warner going direct to streaming today.
Shares in cinema groups have collapsed.
But don’t write them off too soon.
Just because studios can go direct to our living rooms doesn’t mean we want them to.
People flocked to cinemas before Covid. It’s worth a bet they’ll come back when it passes.
Besides, studios make far more money from a family of five paying £50 to go to the cinema than they do from a tenner on pay-per-view.
Those economics will force a compromise, which means for those of a risktaking bent, it’s worth buying shares in the sector at today’s price.
Cue up the danger music…
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