Covid vaccine: Which parts of the travel industry will benefit first?

Mass vaccination against Covid-19 could be rolled out across the UK as early as next week as Britain became the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus jab for use.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, described its approval was a "day to remember in a year to forget" and described the jab as a "victory for science". It comes less than a month after news of a breakthrough in the race for a vaccine was was greeted with much fanfare. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the "bugle of the scientific cavalry" was getting louder.

The vaccine has been shown in studies to be 95 per cent effective and works in all age groups. The UK has already ordered 40 million doses of the vaccine, enough to vaccinate 20 million people.

But what does this mean for the beleaguered travel industry, which continues to weather a storm created by shifting travel corridors and an unhelpful 14-day quarantine policy, which is set to be replaced by the 'test to release'

Paul Charles, chief executive of travel consultancy The PC Agency, said: “The vaccine development is the fillip that the travel sector was needing; a small boost in confidence to show people that 2021 will be better.”

He added that across the industry summer 2021 bookings are starting to flow in, with the second half of the year likely to see a “boom in terms of overseas trips as well as staycations”.

“Prices will rise by 10-20 per cent to cater for the demand, as operators try to recover lost earnings from this year. But staying away from home will be the clear focus for consumers, not staying at home,” he told Telegraph Travel.

We’ve spoken to experts across different areas of the industry to see how a vaccine might lead to a major boost for travellers.

Cruise

The cruise industry has had a particularly torrid time during the pandemic. It shouldered a disproportionate amount of blame early in the pandemic, paused operations across the globe and in the summer – when much was being opened up again – it was lumbered with a ban by the Foreign Office. This is a sector that contributes £10 billion a year towards the UK economy.

“The news of an impending vaccine has certainly got consumers thinking about their next cruise," said James Cole, founder and managing director of Panache Cruises. “The deals, offers and flexible booking conditions available currently make it a great time to book – I certainly don’t believe they will be available once the industry has been fully mobilised again.”

Telegraph Cruise writer Dave Monk said: "A vaccine would be a huge boost for the cruise sector. Many older customers are still uncertain about sailing in the near future, even with all the Covid precautions that lines have introduced. They would be among the first groups of people to get access to the vaccine and would be keen to get back on board ‒ or, at least, book with confidence – as soon as they felt safe to do so."

However, Mr Cole warned that “the industry still has some way to go before cruising gets the full go-ahead” and that a “robust framework” to deal with cases of coronavirus must be put in place across the industry.

While cruise lines have consistently reported strong forward bookings from their loyal returning customers, a vaccine could go some way to introduce first-time cruisers to a ship, something which Paul Ludlow, the president of P&O Cruises said has “slowed down”.

Ski

The slopes in Europe saw a tentative return of skiers as restrictions eased over the summer and many were positive for a prompt start to the winter season but this growth was stopped with the continent's latest raft of lockdowns. The promise of a vaccine, however, “has the potential to save this ski season”, according to Richard Sinclair, the managing director of ski travel agency SNO, while James Gambrill, chief executive of the Mountain Trade Network, which regularly surveys the ski market, told Telegraph Travel that ski holidays are “positioned to be one of the first areas of travel to benefit” when the vaccine becomes widely available.

“Ski resorts are already highly prepared with social distancing measures, regular cleaning of lifts and public areas and in many cases rapid testing kits being deployed in resort – but a vaccine could open the doors to international travel which can represent as much as 50 per cent of the visits to ski resorts.”

That the older members of the population will be among the first to receive the vaccine could be good news for ski, said Iain Martin, host of The Ski Podcast. He said that “the fact that the ski market has an ageing demographic has been seen as a weakness, but this may become a strength”.

“A viable vaccine would make a huge difference to consumer sentiment. Older skiers are more likely to book for earlier in the season, while families and younger skiers will feel more confident about booking for February half-term and late-season.

Mr Martin had previously said that the key issue that needs to be resolved to fully restore confidence is “that of quarantine on return, hopefully to be reduced shortly with a 'test and release' system” – a change that will come into force from the middle of December, and something that The Telegraph has been campaigning for with Test4Travel.

Tour operators

A vaccine will be “the key driver” when it comes to booking holidays for next year, according to Giles Hawk, the chief executive of Cosmos Tours – and once again the age groups that will be vaccinated early will play a major role.

“Our customers are generally in the over 50 age group and are well travelled and curious about the world. They like the adventure of new places and the comfort of having us show them the best places to go and things to do and see,” Mr Hawke said.

“It is highly likely that many of our customers will be near the front of the queue to get the vaccination by the end of the first quarter of 2021 and therefore ready to travel from April onwards.”

It’s a feeling shared by many travel operators, who play an incredibly important role within the travel stratosphere – in 2019, UK tour operators were estimated to be worth around £14.9 billion to the economy.

Some are began feeling an impact as soon as the breakthrough was announced last month. Alistair McLean, managing director of The Artisan Travel Company, which owns the brands Activities Abroad, The Aurora Zone and Artisan Travel, told The Telegraph that in the 24 hours since news of a vaccine was announced they saw a “substantial sharp increase in both website views and resulting enquiries from clients”.

Bamboo Holidays, which specialises in trips to Asia, reported five “promising enquiries” for 2021 bookings after the news, while Mavros Safaris’ co-founder and managing director, Alexander Mavros, said his company had seen an immediate resurgence in interest for people to travel to Africa and reconnect with nature whilst being on safari”.

Chris Breen, a group tour leader at Wildlife Worldwide, said that “a number of our passengers are in the ‘older’ category and have been quite clear with us that they won’t consider travelling until there is a vaccine available” but that it will also be good news for younger travellers.

“We also have many younger clients that more recently have clearly become fed up with not being able to travel, and seem happy to travel against Foreign Office advice,” Mr Breen added. A recent survey by consultancy firm Oliver Wyman found that almost one in four people in the UK would be happy to travel in spite of government advice against it.

Hotels

With overseas holidays taking more of a back-seat this year, many hotels and self-catering properties in the UK experienced a surge in bookings – the rise of the ‘staycation’.

Some leading hoteliers are unsure how quickly a vaccine could unlock the sector. Robin Hutson, the man behind Lime Wood and The Pig hotel group, told Telegraph Travel that “anything that will allow guests and operators to travel in a more relaxed, normal, hospitable fashion is to be welcomed” but suspect that it will take most of 2021 to be rolled out and for confidence to return.

Again, it’s the older customers who could lead the way. Mr Hutson added: “Our hotels appeal to quite a broad church of ages. It will be great to see more of the older generation out and about enjoying hotels with confidence. I really feel for this group for whom it must have been feeling like 'virus Russian roulette' every time they step outside their front door.”

We should be looking less at ages and more at the type of travel, believes Guy Nixon, the founder and chief executive of Native Aparthotels. He expects leisure travel to come back quickly when a vaccine becomes available, but business travel to lag behind as “habits have changed, possibly for good”.

A spokesman from Elite Hotels, which includes The Grand in Eastbourne, said last month that “news of a potential vaccine is very welcome, albeit needs to be taken with extreme caution until confirmed” and that Covid-secure protocols would remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Those offering self-catering and villa holidays also saw a rapid boost on the back of the vaccine. Red Paxton, director at Habitat Escapes, said “news of the vaccine has seen a surge in bookings, we are up by 70 per cent compared to the same time in 2019 and 60 percent have been multigenerational families.

“It’s a clear indication that people are not only optimistic about booking holidays again, but they’re also confident about reuniting and travelling with those that might have been shielding, including grandparents.”

CV Villas also saw a 76 per cent increase in searches following the news, as well as a 40 per cent increase in bookings.

Airlines

During the pandemic we’ve seen younger people more willing to travel despite coronavirus, according to John Grant from aviation analysts OAG, who believes “the vaccine news is particularly encouraging for the slightly more mature traveller who may over the last nine months have wondered if they would ever board an aircraft again”.

It looks as though air travel won’t spring back to life after yesterday’s news, though. British Airways described the breakthrough as “great news” but warned it would take time to implement, while Easyjet said it was “welcome news” but “very early days”.

Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of low-cost carrier Ryanair, described it as the “first bit of sunshine we’ve had for the past 12 months” but added that it won’t be until next summer that there will be “some degree of normality”.

Rather than wait for a vaccine, British Airways told Telegraph Travel that people are keen to travel now, and that the UK Government needs to “introduce a fast, reliable test before flying with the option of a further test after arrival, to eliminate the need for quarantine.”

Read more: Who will get the vaccine first?