Cardiovascular deaths could triple in the next 50 years due to the climate crisis

Cardiovascular deaths could triple as the climate crisis worsens, study finds. (Getty Images)
Cardiovascular deaths could triple as the climate crisis worsens, study finds. (Getty Images)

The number of cardiovascular deaths could triple in the next 50 years due to the climate crisis, a new study has found.

As global warming brings extreme heat, heat-influenced cardiovascular deaths – including by stroke and heart attack – could increase by as much as 233% over the next 13 to 47 years.

The rising speed and level of greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades could have a ‘profound’ effect on extreme heat and subsequently, the public’s health, the study from the University of Pennsylvania found.

The researchers estimated the excess number of cardiovascular deaths associated with extreme heat by comparing the predicted number of deaths in the US if no extreme heat occurred with the number of excess deaths if the projected number of heat days occurred.

The analysis revealed that even if currently proposed reductions in emissions were fully implemented and adhered to, excess cardiovascular deaths due to extreme heat would be 162% higher by the middle of the century, compared to the 2008-2019 baseline.

BRIGHTON, UNITED KINGDOM - SEPTEMBER 09: Thousands of sun-seekers and sunbather enjoy late summer heatwave as temperatures are expected to reach 32 degrees Celsius in many parts of the UK, making it the hottest day of the year in Brighton seafront, East Sussex, United Kingdom on September, 09, 2023. As the unseasonal weather continues, the UK Health Security Agency has issued an amber heat health alert. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
The UK has sen record temperatures in recent years. (Getty Images)

Furthermore, if greenhouse gas emissions were not strictly implemented, excess cardiovascular deaths due to extreme heat would be projected to increase by 233% in the coming decades.

“Climate change and its many manifestations will play an increasingly important role on the health of communities around the world in the coming decades," the study's lead author, Dr Sameed Khatana, explained.

“The magnitude of the percent increase was surprising. This increase accounts for not only the known association between cardiovascular deaths and extreme heat but is also impacted by the population getting older.

“Living conditions may also have a role in terms of social isolation, which is experienced by some older adults and has previously been linked with a higher probability of death from extreme heat."

Recent research from the American Heart Association found that risk of a fatal heart attack can double during a heatwave, particularly in areas with high levels of air pollution, and that heatwaves between 34C and 43C lasting four days or more can increase the risk of a fatal heart attack by 74%.

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According to the British Heart Foundation (BHF), the reason why cardiovascular fatalities increase in heat is because your body has to work harder during hot weather to regulate its core temperature, which can put a strain on your heart, lungs and kidneys.

It adds that it’s particularly important for people with heart conditions to stay cool and hydrated in hot weather, as they are at greater risk of being affected by the heat.

The hottest day in the UK for 2023 was recorded on 9 September at Kew Gardens in London where temperatures reached 33.2C.

It comes one year after the Met Office recorded a record high temperature in the UK in 2022 - 40.3°C at Coningsby, Lincolnshire.

Additional reporting by SWNS.

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