What the Caribbean’s spiralling crime rates mean for your holiday

For all their charm, the pristine beaches of the Caribbean have always been slightly at odds with the reality of life in the region. This situation is helped by the fact that tourism remains the lifeblood of local economies – and is typically insulated from the high crime rates, civil unrest and political instability.

Could that be about to change? Over the past year, a rising tide of experts and law enforcement agencies have been sounding their alarms about a surge in violent crime across the Caribbean, including in countries usually regarded as tourist paradises.

In response to the violence, some governments are resorting to dramatic moves to restore order. Just last week, the government in Trinidad and Tobago extended its “state of emergency” which grants extra powers to police in order to stem gang violence.

This isn’t the first time the region has seen instability, with previous waves doing little to dent tourism. So are tourists at risk? Here’s our guide to what you need to know.

What is happening in the Caribbean?

Given that the Caribbean comprises 33 separate political entities (13 of which are sovereign states), any assessment is always going to involve a degree of oversimplification. Yet several authoritative measures point to a general increase in violence across the region – particularly in concentrated urban areas.

The problem has been acknowledged by Caribbean leaders themselves. Last year, several government heads issued a joint statement warning about increased levels of crime “fuelled in part by firearms and ammunition trafficking, transnational criminal networks, and a deterioration of social structures”.

Judging by the official indicators, they are right to be concerned, with countries across the region reporting a spike in homicides. Of the 20 countries with the highest murder rates, 12 are Caribbean islands. In the Turks and Caicos Islands and St Vincent and the Grenadines, the number of killings in 2023 was 50 per cent and 63 per cent higher, respectively, than in 2019. In St Kitts and Nevis, the murder rate has soared by 121 per cent over the same period.

The most extreme example is Haiti, where tourists are advised not to travel by the FCDO. Here, a dramatic escalation in gang violence has challenged the very foundations of the state. Last year, more than 5,600 people lost their lives (a homicide rate of 48 deaths per 100,000 people), with one million having to flee their homes.

Given the severity of the situation, Caribbean governments are doing their best to fight back, in particular by ramping up policing resources. So-called “state of emergency” measures were put in place in parts of Jamaica last summer and are now being used across the islands of Trinidad and Tobago.

Is the Caribbean becoming unsafe for tourists?

Even those charting the shocking rise in violence appear to agree that it is unlikely to have a direct impact on tourists, even if the situation may be concerning on a humanitarian level.

In the countries that have seen an increase in gang crime – including Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Trinidad and Tobago – almost all of the violence is concentrated in urban areas which are never going to be on the typical tourist itinerary.

Of course it helps that much of the Caribbean tourist ecosystem is made up of all-inclusive resorts, which are usually in relatively isolated locations and take their security extremely seriously.

“It is still extremely rare for tourists to be targeted in Jamaica, as it is in much of the Caribbean,” says Professor Anthony Clayton, a regional expert living in Kingston and based at the University of the West Indies.

He says that much of the crime wave relates to rival gangs, who have no motivations to target outsiders. What’s more, the gangs also know that any violence against tourists is likely to draw an extreme response from the authorities.

What is the official advice?

With the exception of Haiti, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) doesn’t currently name any of the Caribbean countries or territories on its red or orange lists (“do not travel” and “essential travel only”) – nor is there any recent precedent of doing so.

The FCDO has updated its more detailed safety advice on Trinidad and Tobago to take into account the state of emergency. It says that travellers should expect to see a heightened police presence on the islands, but it doesn’t suggest this will pose any danger to tourists.

The advice on Jamaica remains unchanged, with the guidance encouraging visitors to be “cautious” in inner-city areas. It also advises tourists to be careful when it comes to withdrawing money from ATMs (a good bit of life advice in general).

As for Turks and Caicos, the FCDO notes that levels of overall crime are “relatively low.” While they note that the islands of Providenciales and Grand Turk have seen a spike in gun crime, they say that the risks are “generally lower” in tourist areas.

As always, it’s worth acquainting yourself with the current advice for your destination before you set off.

Has it affected tourism?

At present, there are no signs that worries about crime are discouraging tourists from visiting the Caribbean. Last year, Jamaica welcomed more than four million tourists – an increase of 25 per cent from two years earlier and close to its pre-pandemic figure of 4.3m.

“We haven’t had so much of a murmur about the situation in Trinidad and Tobago,” says Paul Cleary, founder of the high-end travel provider Caribtours – though he adds that the country isn’t as popular with British travellers as other destinations.

“There was a situation in Jamaica in 2018 which was slightly closer to the resort areas. There was certainly a sense that more of our customers were aware of that, but it wasn’t deterring them from travelling.”

Jo Plummer, founder of tour operator Travel Breeze, agrees that travellers aren’t panicking about negative headlines. “The Caribbean is very diverse and people understand the differences between the islands,” she says. “Our advice to customers is to behave as they would at home, think about where you are going and take advice from the hotel staff before venturing out to an area you don’t know.”

Can I get a refund for my trip?

The standard guidance from the travel association ABTA, which sets standards for tour operators, is that its members should offer refunds only if the FCDO adds a country to its red or orange lists. With the exception of Haiti (which was added to the red list last summer) that doesn’t currently cover any of the Caribbean territories. This means you’re unlikely to be entitled to a refund. However, it’s worth speaking to your travel company if you have concerns – they may let you switch to another destination, or postpone your trip.

Where are the safest islands?

The travel advisory website Travel Safe Abroad collates data on a wide range of crimes (including muggings, violent crimes, and vehicle thefts) to rank countries based on their safety.

Of the various Caribbean islands, those with the highest safety scores are Aruba, Bermuda, and the British Virgin Islands. Perhaps the most popular spot near the top of the list is Barbados, which currently enjoys a safety score of 80 out of 100.

Of course, no country is completely crime-free, and the FCDO’s more detailed advice presents a more nuanced picture.