US presidential candidate Joe Biden has surged to an 82% chance of winning the election following a long night in which he traded as low as 22%, betting exchange company Smarkets said.
Conversely, Donald Trump has plummeted to 18% after reaching as high as 80% last night.
Smarket’s electoral college forecast currently projects Biden is on course for 292 electoral votes to Trump’s 246.
Its users now make it a 64% chance that President Trump won’t concede if he loses the election, following an astonishing speech this morning in which he falsely claimed victory.
Patrick Flynn, a political analyst at Smarkets, said: "After a long night of wild twists and turns in our election market, Joe Biden is once again the strong favourite to win the 2020 presidential election and become the 46th President of the United States. Biden now leads in the vote counts in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, and our markets make Biden a heavy favourite to win all three of those states (85%, 94% and 93%, respectively).
“If Biden takes those three, he’s at 270 electoral votes and will become president-elect, without even accounting for the close races in Pennsylvania and Georgia."
The market is chaotic and constantly changing, as everything comes down to the wire: earlier in the day, rival Donald Trump’s price was as high as 80% after positive news for the Republican’s emerged in Florida and Ohio. He was then given a 2-in-3 chance (68%) of winning re-election but then plummeted to 41% after the Democrat fightback in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Biden then took the lead on the Smarkets exchange for the first time since Tuesday, and held a 59% chance of winning the election.
On Tuesday, it was reported there was a 45% chance incumbent Trump will not concede if he loses the US election race, according to Smarkets.
Nearly 100 million Americans are believed to have voted early in the presidential election, on course to be the highest turnout in a century. They are voting in one of the country’s most divisive presidential elections in decades between incumbent Trump and his Democrat challenger Biden.
WATCH: Stocks volatile as traders sweat US vote result
The president’s unsubstantiated claims of victory as well as fraud had immediately spooked financial markets worldwide earlier on Wednesday, ratcheting up uncertainty over the outcome and fears of unrest.
Neither candidate yet has the 270 electoral college votes needed to win, and many votes remain to be counted. His Democrat rival Joe Biden had himself said he was “on track to win this election,” but urged patience while votes were counted.
The president’s comments knocked European and US stock futures and oil shortly before European markets opened, boosting demand for government bonds and the dollar. But losses were quickly pared back.