Tory rebels warn May not to attempt to enshrine Brexit date in law

Key Tory rebels who inflicted a Commons defeat on the government’s flagship EU withdrawal bill have warned Theresa May that she could be embarrassed again unless she concedes more ground.

Eleven MPs backed an amendment by the former attorney general Dominic Grieve to enshrine in law parliament’s right to a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal. Grieve and his fellow rebel Stephen Hammond said another defeat was likely next week if May persisted in her attempt to fix the date of Brexit.

The government-backed amendment seeks to set in law that the UK’s membership of the union will end at 11pm GMT (midnight in Brussels) on 29 March 2019.

Grieve said he was sure the government would be defeated again next week if the amendment went to a vote.

“I hope very much [another rebellion] won’t be necessary because if the government comes back with that date I’m sure the government will be defeated and I have no desire to defeat the government or be involved in the government’s defeat a second time,” he told BBC Newsnight on Wednesday.

Hammond, the MP for Wimbledon, who was sacked as Tory party vice-chair overnight, echoed Grieve’s sentiments.

“I’ve never rebelled once, unlike some people who are currently ministers who tried their best to bring down the Cameron government,” Hammond told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Thursday morning. “I’ve got no intention of rebelling again. I think frankly last night was avoidable and it’s regrettable it went the way it did.”

Asked if he would vote against the Brexit date amendment, Hammond said: “I didn’t say that. I said I hope I don’t have to rebel again. I think a lot of people will view that proposition as unnecessary, probably not a good way to negotiate.”

Downing Street said there were “no plans to withdraw the amendment” next week on the exit date. “We are disappointed with last night’s amendment and we now need to consider if further changes are needed to the bill to ensure it fulfils its vital purpose.”

Answering questions in the Commons on Thursday, the Brexit secretary, David Davis, gave no comment when asked by his Labour shadow, Keir Starmer, whether he would drop the “ill-conceived gimmick” of the Brexit date amendment or face another defeat.

Davis said only that he would respect any vote by MPs. However, asked by Starmer if the government would seek to “undermine or overturn” Wednesday night’s defeat, he said no decisions had been made.

The impact of Grieve’s amendment would be to bring a “very compressed timetable” to the Brexit legislative process.

“Those who want to see a smooth and orderly exit from the European Union will hopefully want to see a working statute book,” he said. “And so we will have to think about how we respond to it. But as always, we take the House of Commons’ view seriously, and will continue to do so.”

Hammond and Grieve were criticised by colleagues and pro-Brexit media on Wednesday night, with the Tory MP Nadine Dorries and former ConservativeHome editor Tim Montgomerie going as far as suggesting they should be deselected.

Other backers of amendment 7 were also criticised, including the former education secretary Nicky Morgan, former business minister Anna Soubry, and Cambridge MP Heidi Allen.

Staying in the single market and customs union

If the UK has a change of heart, it could sign up to all the EU’s rules and regulations, staying in the EU’s single market and customs union. Freedom of movement would continue and the UK would keep paying into the Brussels pot. We would continue to have unfettered access to EU trade, but the pledge to “take back control” of laws, borders and money would not have been fulfilled. This is an unlikely outcome and one that may be possible only by reversing the Brexit decision, after a second referendum or election.

The Norway model

Britain could follow Norway, which is in the single market, is subject to freedom of movement rules and pays a fee to Brussels – but is outside the customs union. That combination would tie Britain to EU regulations but allow it to sign trade deals of its own. A “Norway-minus” deal is more likely. That would see the UK leave the single market and customs union and end free movement of people. But Britain would align its rules and regulations with Brussels, hoping this would allow a greater degree of market access. The UK would still be subject to EU rules.

The Canada deal

A comprehensive trade deal like the one handed to Canada would help British traders, as it would lower or eliminate tariffs. But there would be little on offer for the UK services industry. It is a bad outcome for financial services. Such a deal would leave Britain free to diverge from EU rules and regulations but that in turn would lead to border checks and the rise of other “non-tariff barriers” to trade. It would leave Britain free to forge new trade deals with other nations. Many in Brussels see this as a likely outcome, based on Theresa May’s direction so far.

No deal

Britain leaves with no trade deal, meaning that all trade is governed by World Trade Organisation rules. Tariffs would be high, queues at the border long and the Irish border issue severe. In the short term, British aircraft might be unable to fly to some European destinations. The UK would quickly need to establish bilateral agreements to deal with the consquences, but the country would be free to take whatever future direction it wishes. It may need to deregulate to attract international business – a very different future and a lot of disruption.

Speaking in the Commons during Brexit questions, Soubry had a testy exchange with opponents on her own benches. When Soubry began by saying none of the rebels “took any pleasure” in what they did, one Tory MP shouted that the rebels drank champagne to celebrate.

Soubry stopped her question to say: “Nobody drank champagne, not on these benches. Let’s just nail that one. These are serious matters.”

Grieve also said rebels would not be deterred. “I’m not very concerned about knives being out for me,” he said. “I’m in parliament to do my duty by my constituents and by my country. I’m sorry to hear if colleagues think so ill of me but it’s not going to affect what I do one jot.”

Hammond declined to comment on calls for deselections. “I make a cardinal rule not to be rude about my colleagues in public and I am not going to start now,” he said.

The MP said some degree of flexibility around the article 50 deadline, two years from the date May triggered the official notification that the UK is leaving the EU, was crucial. However, he said that would be a matter of weeks because of the need to conclude before June’s EU parliament elections.

“Nothing that happened yesterday stops Brexit; nothing that happened yesterday actually undermines the prime minister in any way,” he said. “If [the Brexit deal] is concluded by October next year, that gives six months if things go wrong. What we want to see is a deal negotiated in good time, so it can be scrutinised and passed by the House of Commons.”

May will travel to a crucial EU summit on Thursday under the cloud of her Commons defeat, somewhat marring last week’s fillip provided by the European commission, which said that negotiations had made “sufficient progress” on EU citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and the Irish border to move negotiations to the second phase – the future relationship.

Downing Street said it would “respect the will of MPs” but may seek to amend the bill again during later stages of its passage through parliament.