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If the early modelling on the Government’s ‘green’ list is to be believed, plenty of British travellers this summer are going to find themselves out in the cold. Literally. The US, New Zealand, Australia, Israel, Malta, Iceland, Ireland and Gibraltar are to be the Accessible Eight, set to reopen to UK visitors when international travel resumes on May 17, without the need for quarantine on return. But with just three of those countries in the top 20 nations typically preferred by Britons, 2021 will be the year of the Holiday Homeless, scouring the internet for the best resorts in countries they had never given a second thought to visiting. If you discount the US (one of the three; the fourth most popular), Australia and New Zealand on account of the fact that Britons are most likely to look closer to home this summer for their first post-pandemic beach flop, that leaves just Ireland and Malta of our favourite destinations open for business. In 2019, Ireland and Malta accounted for 5.63 million of the 58.7 million trips made abroad by Britons, barely 10 per cent. That means that 56.3 million holidays will be either a) unfulfilled or b) crammed onto Irish or Maltese soil. We are creatures of habit when it comes to holidays. Spain has long been the most popular destination for Britons, with France second. In 2019, Spain, France and Italy accounted for more than half of all UK outbound tourism (33.5 million trips).
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The USA, Malta, Israel, Iceland, Gibraltar and Ireland are likely to be on the ‘green list’ for safe travel this summer, according to new modelling. The analysis, carried out by Robert Boyle – former strategy chief of British Airways and its owner IAG – confirms that, according to the Government's “risk” criteria, only eight destinations will make the cut when the green list is unveiled on May 10. New Zealand and Australia will also be categorised as green, the analysis shows, although both countries are currently closed to foreign arrivals outside of their ‘Tasman Bubble’, which opens today. Most of Europe – including holiday favourites Spain and Greece – is expected to fall on the “amber” list, while many more countries could be categorised as “red” by the summer based on the current modelling. So what does this mean for your summer holiday hopes? Here, Telegraph Travel’s team of experts mine their worldly knowledge to pick out seven once-in-a-lifetime holidays that will be possible this summer, without any quarantine on arrival or return. Since Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to welcome Britons this summer, we have focused our attention on the more viable green-list potentials of USA, Malta, Israel, Iceland, Gibraltar and Ireland. For a tropical island escape: Kauai, Hawaii Simon and Susan Veness Remote, rugged, impossibly picturesque – Kauai, the northern outlier of Hawaii’s archipelago, has stolen almost all its sister islands’ share of big, bold and dramatic. Take a small-boat cruise along the north-west coast to discover the looming Na Pali cliffs, the razor-like peaks towering almost 4,000ft high; soothe your soul in Hanalei Bay, where the gorgeous two-mile, crescent-shaped beach is backed by verdant mountains; marvel at Waimea Canyon, a breathtaking rift through the island’s core, 10 miles long and 3,000ft deep, fully justifying its nickname as the Grand Canyon of the Pacific.
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Could the Caribbean be the saviour of summer? While Europe wrestles with yet another pandemic wave, horizons are far brighter across the Atlantic – with white sands and rum cocktails to boot. Let’s start with the good news. In many Caribbean nations, the data is looking positive – raising hopes that they could be added to the UK’s green (or at least amber) list. Case rates are falling, and vaccination numbers are rising – and that’s just the start. These island nations depend heavily on tourism, ensuring that tourism workers are being prioritised for inoculation, and border policies are (for the most-part) generous. Indeed, before the UK Government pulled all travel corridors in January 2021, the region had arguably provided Britons’ most reliable holiday options, with eight Caribbean islands welcoming holidaymakers. The likes of Barbados, St Lucia and Antigua were open for business – albeit with testing requirements, and/or minimal quarantine rules. However, time is running out for sunseekers: June brings hurricane season, with the potential for high winds, rain and travel disruption. Some islands are naturally more sheltered than others, such as Grenada and Barbados – but if the weather is a deal-breaker, you may need to temper your expectations for a summertime break. Below, we crunch the numbers to see which Caribbean destinations could be first on the UK Government’s green list, when it is finally published on May 10. Of course, there are no guarantees – but here’s what the data, and experts, are saying. Antigua Chance of making the green list: 8/10 Arrival restrictions: Simple
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Herd immunity is the point at which enough people in the population develop a resistance to coronavirus.
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