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Are shark attacks on the rise – and should I be worried?

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On Monday, a man was killed by a shark around the Whitsunday Islands on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. It's the third shark attack to occur in same region in the last seven weeks.

The 33-year-old Australian was on a rented yacht with friends, anchored around 14 miles from Airlie Beach in Cid Harbour when he dived into the water and was seized by the shark - the species of which is still unknown.

Despite a frenzied rescue effort, the unnamed man died from his injuries having been airlifted to a hospital 60 miles away.

In near-identical circumstances, on September 19, a 46-year-old tourist swimming from a yacht in the same harbour was also attacked by a shark. She survived but is still recovering. The very next day, a 12-year-old tourist was attacked in the same fashion and at the same location, and lost her leg as a result.

Is it safe to swim around the Whitsundays?

A resounding no, in this part at least. "We can't be clearer - don't swim in Cid Harbour," said Fisheries Minister Mark Furner in a statement today.

What about elsewhere - should we be concerned?

Before this trio of attacks, the last shark attack to occur in the Whitsunday Islands was on February 13, 2010, off Dent Island, where a 60-year-old tourist survived lacerations to her buttocks and major blood loss. Prior to this, no shark had attacked a human in the region for 13 years.

There has thus undoubtedly been a rise of cases in recent times, and authorities are now calling for science-based response to figure out why.

Daniel Gschwind, chief executive of the Queensland Tourism Industry Council, which represents more than 3,000 tourism businesses, said on Tuesday that authorities were methodically examining why the unprecedented series of attacks had occurred and whether environmental changes were a factor.

The latest attack happened around the idyllic Whitsunday Islands in Australia - Credit: getty
The latest attack happened around the idyllic Whitsunday Islands in Australia Credit: getty

"We need to now have the scientific background and investigation of what is causing this sudden spike of attacks and interactions with sharks. We simply do not know why this is occurring and what is responsible for it," Mr Gschwind said.

It was a similar story earlier this year in the US, specifically Cape Cod, where a surfer was killed by a great white shark in September. It marked the first fatal shark attack in the state of Massachusetts for 80 years, and followed a sharp increase in the number of sharks that had been spotted in the area.

The National Park Service which covers the region said at the time that it had closed beaches about 25 times this year, for at least an hour at a time, equating to more than double the annual average.

Indeed, worldwide, the number of "unprovoked" shark attacks has been rising steadily over the past century.

Florida Museum’s International Shark Attack File (ISAF) has data on shark attacks that stretch back to the 1900s. In the first decade of the 20th century, a total of 39 unprovoked attacks were recorded. One hundred years later, between 2000 and 2009, that number had climbed to 661.

But it's important to keep two things in mind. Firstly, that research continues to advance in leaps and bounds, and figures are far more comprehensive in modern times; and secondly, there is a direct correlation between the number of shark attacks and the number of beachgoers who enter their domain each year.

"As the world population and interest in aquatic recreation continues to rise, we expect the incidence of shark attacks to increase as well," states the ISAF's latest report, covering 2017. In short, the more people who swim, surf and otherwise paddle around in known shark hunting grounds, the more are likely to fall prey.

There were 88 unprovoked attacks listed last year worldwide, compared to 81 the previous year, but not as high as it was in 2015, when 98 attacks were listed.

"The ISAF does not assign too much significance to these short-term trends as annual fluctuations in shark-human interactions are to be expected," the report states. "Year-to-year variability in oceanographic, socio-economic, and meteorological conditions significantly influences the local abundance of sharks and humans in the water and, therefore the odds of encountering one another."

The spike in attacks during 2015 is a notable example. Increased activity in North and South Carolina, for one, caused panic to break loose. The neighbouring states, which see one or two shark attacks per year on average, reported eight (none fatal) in the month of July alone.

"We know the water temperatures got warmer earlier this year," George Burgess, director of the Florida Programme for Shark Research, said at the time. "There’s been a lack of rainfall, which means there’s less fresh water entering the sea, so it’s more saline along the coastline.

"There are abundant schools of herring-like fish that are particularly favoured by sharks and other predators, and it’s sea turtle nesting season, when the sea turtles leave the water to lay their eggs and come back in, which is a favourite meal for some large sharks.

"All of those things mean it’s good to be a shark right now in those waters."

Moreover, the presence of more people in the water during the school holidays increased the likelihood of encounters.

"What you have is a combination of lots of people, lots of sharks, and lots of food in one area, which is a formula for shark attacks," said Burgess.

Where do most attacks occur?

The USA has for a long time seen the most attacks, last year accounting for more than 60 per cent of the worldwide total, with 53. It's followed by Australia (14), Reunion Island (3); and (each with only two attacks last year), Ascension Island, the Bahamas, Costa Rica, Indonesia and South Africa.

Countries which listed one attack in 2017 include the UK, Japan, New Zealand, the Maldives, Brazil, Egypt, Cuba (the only fatality) and the Canary Islands. Of the total number of 88 unprovoked attacks worldwide, five were fatal.

South Africa’s relatively low number of attacks is interesting. Its two, non-fatal attacks in 2017 were slightly lower than its annual average of four total shark attacks and one fatality. But considering South Africa, and in particular Gansbaai, is often referred to as the "Great White Shark Capital of the World", such are their numbers around the Cape, you’d be forgiven for expecting more.

It’s perhaps because the surfers who take to these waves on a daily basis in South Africa are more alert to their presence, tend to avoid the times of days when great whites are most likely to be hunting (dawn and dusk), and have a strong aerial patrol presence (plenty of helicopters that monitor sightings and issue alerts accordingly).

Wilfred Chivell, CEO of Marine Dynamics and the Dyer island Conservation Trust, based in Gansbaai, told Telegraph Travel: "We have been working and researching great white sharks for more than a decade and we are just not on the shark’s menu.

"These occasional incidents that happen are usually mistaken identity due to various factors. It is a tragic event when a life is lost and we send our condolences to the family of the victim in Massachusetts, but this is inevitable as more people spend time in the shark’s natural habitat.

"Depending on the type of coastline, programmes such as Shark Spotters in False Bay, are incredibly helpful. It is important to find ways to mitigate interactions and respect their territory. White shark numbers are of concern and we need to protect this very necessary apex predator."

Who is most likely to fall victim?

Overwhelmingly, surfers. Florida accounts for nearly 60 per cent of all shark attacks off US shores, and of these 2017 attacks, 59 per cent involved surfers, 22 per cent swimmers, 9 per cent snorkellers and 2 per cent scuba divers.

Why? Because from beneath the surface surfers most closely resemble seals, and on rare occasions are mistaken for the favourite great white prey. It should be noted that great whites do not appear to enjoy the taste of humans, typically only biting once.  

Are the number of sharks increasing?

Far from it. "The sombre truth is that the world’s shark populations are actually in decline, or exist at greatly reduced levels, as a result of over-fishing and habitat loss," states the ISAF.

"On average there are only six fatalities that are attributable to unprovoked shark attacks worldwide, each year. By contrast about 100 million sharks and rays are killed each year by fisheries."

What about the UK?

There are already more than 30 species of shark currently found in British waters, says marine conservation charity, Shark Trust, "including some of the fastest, rarest, largest and most highly migratory sharks in the world" - but none that pose any real danger to humans.

This could change, however, according to recent research which indicates that climate change could be responsible for the appearance of some new, more deadly species to our shores in the future.

What has climate change got to do with it?

A study published in April, carried out by Dr Ken Collins, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Southampton and a former member of the UK Shark Tagging Programme, has warned that dangerous sharks including great whites and oceanic white-tips could be swimming off the beaches of Cornwall within the next 30 years.

It found that rising sea temperatures will encourage more exotic predators that have previously avoided our chilly coastline.

At least ten new species are predicted to become regular visitors to Britain’s waters by 2050, including black tips, sand tigers and hammerheads, which are currently found no further north than the coasts of Spain and Portugal. At the end of June, a great white was sighted near the island of Majorca for the first time in 40 years.

The warming waters are also expected to attract the oceanic white tip which Jacques Cousteau described as "the most dangerous of all sharks" and which has historically been responsible for the most human deaths, often picking off victims of shipwrecks and plane crashes.

The new study was initially based on sharks in The Pacific which biologists noticed were staying for longer than usual off the coast of Australia.

And after switching his focus to the Mediterranean, Dr Collins said that given many sharks now already migrate thousands of miles to reach Spanish and Portuguese shores, it would only take a slight change in water temperatures to encourage them further north, and into Britain’s seas.

The English Channel has warmed by around 1C in the last 50 years and is expected to continue to heat up with climate change while a further global sea surface temperature rise of 1.5C is predicted by 2050.

Jacques Cousteau described the oceanic white tip as "the most dangerous of all sharks" - Credit: istock
Jacques Cousteau described the oceanic white tip as "the most dangerous of all sharks" Credit: istock

So really, great whites in Britain?

Richard Peirce, an expert from the UK Shark Trust, would be delighted to welcome the great apex predator to our coastline and has undergone extensive efforts to find one.

"I still happen to be one of a group of experts who believe in the great white enigma," says Peirce. "The conditions are perfect for them, and their range is enormous, so the odds are extremely high that they would roam here." Alas, he concedes, there has still never been a credible sighting.

Peirce backs up what the ISAF has been saying all along. Any increase in sighting, close shaves - or heaven forbid - attacks, in the UK and elsewhere, is not due to the number of sharks swelling (they are doing the opposite), or global warming. It's probably just more people getting into the water.

"The wetsuit has increased attack statistics all over the world. With everyone able to get further out into the water, and colder water especially, for long periods of time, it’s natural," he says.

OK, so should we actually be worried?

"Certainly not," Peirce says, emphatically. "You are in far more danger on the motorway than you ever would be from sharks in the British seas." And further afield? There are a near-endless supply of statistics which prove just how incredibly rare shark attacks remain.

"The worldwide total number of unprovoked shark attacks is remarkably low given the billions of people participating in aquatic recreation each year," the ISAF assures us.

Their calculations put the chance of dying from a shark attack at one in 3.7 million. Still nervous? Here's how likely you are to die compared to other causes: