Red wall rebuilt? How would Lancs vote go if there was an election today?

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How would Lancashire vote if a general election took place today?
How would Lancashire vote if a general election took place today?

Two important by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton will take place today (23 June) and they are set to be huge tests for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party.

If the Conservatives were to lose both of the by-elections taking place today it would be only the seventh time a government has suffered such a double defeat since the Second World War.

It would also mount further pressure on Prime Minister Boris Johnson, fined for breaching Covid rules, losing his handle on inflation and the cost of living crisis, and without the backing of 40 per cent of his own MPs, to quit No. 10.

Imran Ahmad Khan resigned his seat in Wakefield after being jailed earlier this year for sexually assaulting a child, after a historic win for the Tories in 2019 over Labour, who had held the seat for 87 years.

Meanwhile in Tiverton & Honiton, Neil Parish resigned after admitting to watching porn on his phone in the House of Commons. The rural Devon seat has only ever returned a Tory MP since its creation in 1997.

Labour are predicted to retake Wakefield when votes are counted, while the Tories are predicted to hold Tiverton, despite a big challenge from the Lib Dems.

If an election were to take place in Lancashire today, which party is likely to gain the most seats in each area?

At the 2019 general election, Blackburn stayed red as Boris’s blue tide swept across East Lancashire.

The Conservatives held on to Rossendale and Darwen, Pendle and Ribble Valley and seized Hyndburn and Burnley from Labour.

However, a website which uses current polls to predict a political outcome, said this might not be the case if a general election were to take place today.

The Electoral Calculus data predicts an almost entire Tory wipeout across Lancashire with all but three areas either staying or turning red.

Graph shows predicted political outcomes in East Lancashire if a general election were to take place today.

The website predicts that if a vote were held today there would be a Labour hold in Blackburn, Lancashire West, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Preston and Chorley.

In Blackburn specifically, Labour has a 99 per cent chance of winning with the party predicted to obtain 60.5 per cent of the votes.

The Conservatives are predicted to lose almost all their seats in Lancashire, including those taken from Labour in East Lancs in 2019, suggesting the destruction of the Red Wall was only temporary.

Burnley currently is served by Antony Higginbotham who is the first Conservative MP in the town since 1910.

However, the Electoral Calculus predictions suggest this is could change and Labour now have an 81 per cent chance of winning.

Notable backbencher Jake Berry, leader of the Northern Research Group, would also lose his seat in Rossendale and Darwen to Labour, while Pendle's Andrew Stephenson and Hyndburn's Sara Britcliffe would also taste defeat at the hands of Keir Starmer's Labour party.

Across the rest of Lancashire, Blackpool is predicted to turn its back on the Tories and vote in Labour MPs in Blackpool North and Cleveleys, and Blackpool South.

The Conservatives are also predicted to lose Wyre and Preston North, Morecambe and Lunesdale, and Ribble South.

However, the Tories would keep hold of three seats; Nigel Evans' Ribble Valley, Fylde and Wyre, and Preston North.

In Ribble Valley, the Tories currently have a 62 per cent chance of winning.

The conclusion of Brexit, plus the Tories handling of Covid and the cost of living crisis, and certain divisive policy agendas, along with the various scandals that have rocked Downing Street and Westminster since 2019, are seen as reasons why people would turn their back on the Tories if an election were to happen tomorrow.

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