Reality check: Spain is not going into a second lockdown anytime soon
When the coronavirus ravaged Spain beginning in March of this year, there was one choice when faced with an unknown, highly contagious illness: shutting down the country. The spring’s total, mass confinement was the definition of a desperate measure: necessary when we were still learning about a virus that had enjoyed unfiltered access to the dense population here, propagating quickly between cheek kisses and crowded tapas bars.
Now, there is global speculation and an abundance of sensational headlines about an impending second lockdown of Spain.
The truth? It doesn’t seem likely to happen.
As someone on the ground in one of the highly affected northern regions of Spain, I can confirm that the idea is the equivalent of the nuclear button – people talk about it, but nobody really wants to push it.
If Spain has one single goal, it is to avoid a mass lockdown. The confinement during spring of this year was unprecedented in Spain’s history, and the economic damage it has caused is painful from the bottom all the way to the top. In typical equivocating fashion, politicians from the president to the health minister have done backflips to avoid being caught on record ruling out a countrywide confinement, but the truth is the potential political fallout alone from a second mass confinement is enough to make Spain’s leaders jump to attention and seek other solutions.
The curve of the new coronavirus outbreaks here in Spain is very clearly on the rise. Spain is the European country with the highest number of outbreaks, 224 across the country for a total of 9,758 new cases in the last two weeks to Friday. Many of these cases trace back to family gatherings, outbreaks in nightclubs, weddings, and other group events.
Logically, the strategy for corona summer is more laser focus, contact tracing, and local closings and fewer mass, blanket tactics. Salvador Illa, Spain’s health minister, said, “These outbreaks must be detected early and we must react with diligence, which is what is happening in the majority of cases.”
What does that look like? Take the curious case of Pamplona, in Navarra. A single neighborhood of less than half a square kilometer, Mendillori, has been walked back to phase two, meaning limits of indoor capacities, early closures of hospitality establishments, along with testing of every single resident between the age of 17 to 28, which represent 93% of the new cases.
Will that be enough to stop the spread? Here in Spain, we can’t be sure. Lockdown depends on more than just numbers of contagious people, however. The most important measure actually may be the saturation of the health system, which at the moment is not happening at any scale. Unless that becomes a widespread threat, you can bet Spain will be avoiding any mass lockdowns.
This time, Spain is taking a page out of other world leader’s books and leaving much of the decision making (and therefore, the responsibility) in the hands of the regional governments. They are encouraged to act rapidly, without overthinking, to halt local outbreaks. Some say that by handing off this power, the central government is taking the easy way out, while others applaud the control given to the autonomous regions. The central government is taking this opportunity for a subtle “I told you so”, as when Defense Minister Margarita Robles was quoted in El País referring to the critique by some regional governments during the initial outbreak, who claimed that if they were in charge they’d do a better job. Robles said Friday “We are now seeing that it’s not that easy or simple.”
Spain’s best hope is to leave behind any squabbling and continue to be on high alert. Obligatory mask wearing will help, and is already in effect everywhere except Madrid. Talks are on to put more controls at the international airports. One of the biggest tests, however, still stands before us: the mid-September return to classes.
When asked if they think we may go into mass lockdown again, everyone I ask says “No, absolutely not.” However, they also all follow that statement with a “But…the numbers look very bad.”
Stay tuned. And stay safe.
