THE Conservatives could face an electoral wipeout at the next general election, according to recent polling data.
A YouGov/Times poll published yesterday puts Labour some 33 points ahead of the Conservatives, understood to be the largest lead for Labour in any poll since 1998.
The poll puts Labour on 54 per cent, with the Conservatives down to just 21 per cent.
Another poll, by election forecaster Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now predicted that an imminent general election would see Labour win a majority of over 100 seats, while the Conservatives would be reduced to their lowest share of the national vote in history.
Such a result would see the Tories lose six seats in Sussex to the Labour and the Liberal Democrats. They would lose Eastbourne, Hastings and Rye, Crawley, Lewes, West Worthing and East Worthing and Shoreham.
Sir Peter Bottomley, who first became an MP in 1975, would lose his Worthing West seat. Maria Caulfield would lose Lewes, Caroline Ansell would be replaced in Eastbourne and Sally-Ann Hart would lose Hastings. Henry Smith would also lose in Crawley and so would Tim Loughton in East Worthing and Shoreham.
Another forecast by Election Maps UK, based on the YouGov poll, projected that the Conservatives would lose more than 300 seats if an election was held today, with the Tories reduced to just four seats in Sussex.
What *That* YouGov poll could look like in a General Election:
LAB: 498 (+296)
CON: 61 (-304)
SNP: 36 (-12)
LDM: 29 (+18)
PLC: 4 (=)
Others: 2 (+2)
GRN: 1 (=)
Labour Majority of 346 pic.twitter.com/E2cXu5LNAo
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) September 29, 2022
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our new poll confirms that Liz Truss’ government has got off to a dreadful start with the British public.
“The Conservatives won in 2019 partly because Boris Johnson was an electoral asset and Jeremy Corbyn was an electoral liability. That’s all changed and not to the Conservatives’ advantage.
“On top of that, the mini-budget with its unfunded tax cuts has not been any more popular with voters than it has been with the financial markets.”
Other Conservative MPs in danger of losing their seats include eight Cabinet ministers, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith.
Prime Minister Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will meet with the Office for Budget Responsibility later today following the market turmoil that followed last week’s mini-budget.
The government’s announcement of a £45 billion tax-cutting pledge plunged the pound to historic lows and forced the Bank of England to intervene to calm the markets and prevent pension funds from going bust.