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Inside the ‘civil emergency’ planning for blackouts this winter

national grid energy electricity blackouts
national grid energy electricity blackouts

Memories of Ted Heath’s cabinet convening by candlelight will loom large in Westminster all over the coming weeks and months as for the first time in half a century, the spectre of blackouts has returned.

National Grid’s Winter Outlook Report makes for grim reading. “This is likely to be a challenging winter for energy supply throughout Europe,” it reads. Yet margins, the energy sector jargon for by how much energy supply outstrips demand, will be “adequate”.

“Nevertheless, there remain scenarios, driven principally by factors outside of Great Britain which could impact upon British electricity supplies.”

Paid to switch off

National Grid sets out two scenarios where demand could outstrip supply.

The first assumes no electricity imports from France, the Netherlands and Belgium. Britain has a series of so-called interconnectors with the Continent that run under the sea bed, allowing for the import of electricity from abroad.

Imports would, however, continue from oil-rich Norway. Meanwhile, some of it would be exported to Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

From November 30 until the middle of January, Britain will repeatedly not have enough electricity to meet its needs, the National Grid modelling finds.

The energy company insists that this would not automatically mean blackouts. But it would trigger two remedial actions to keep the lights on.

In a move that will anger climate change campaigners, coal-fired power stations will bridge the energy gap. Originally planned for closure at the end of last month, West Burton A in Nottinghamshire will be fired up. Likewise, Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station, another 1960s eyesore, will begin burning coal. A third at Drax, near Selby, North Yorkshire will also be used.

The coal power station in Ratcliffe-on-Soar will help bridge the gap in energy supply - Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
The coal power station in Ratcliffe-on-Soar will help bridge the gap in energy supply - Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Coal will produce an estimated 2GW of electricity. The other 2GW will come from the deployment of a so-called Demand Flexible Service.

This will allow the grid “to access additional flexibility when the national demand is at its highest”. It will allow customers, whether domestic or corporate, to “be incentivised for voluntarily flexing the time when they use their electricity”.

In other words, households and businesses will be paid to participate in self-imposed blackouts.

Precisely how much consumers can expect for plunging their homes into the Victorian era is currently being hammered out. One thing seems certain, it will be a “dynamic” scheme meaning the value of the incentive will be based on just how desperate the grid is to preserve energy.

While “our expectation is that our mitigation measures will be effective”, National Grid says, there may be the “need to interrupt supply to some customers for limited periods of time in a managed and controlled manner”.

Three hours of darkness

The doomsday scenario is that despite voluntary curbs on energy demand for 10 days in January some of Britain’s gas power station have to shut down because of shortages.

Here the grid would be overwhelmed despite firing up coal power stations and paying customers to turn off their electricity.

“We would not expect there to be a sufficient response from the rest of the market to prevent interruptions to consumer supplies.”

A “civil emergency” under the Electricity Act 1989 would trigger the rollout of the Government’s Electricity Supply Emergency Code.

The National Grid report reads: “In the unlikely event we were in this situation, it would mean that some customers could be without power for pre-defined periods during a day – generally this is assumed to be for three-hour blocks. This would be necessary to ensure the overall security and integrity of the electricity system across Great Britain. All possible mitigating strategies would be deployed to minimise the disruption.

“The extent of rota load shedding would depend on the number of [combined cycle gas turbines] that are unavailable and the duration for which there is insufficient gas to meet power station demand.”

A fight for gas

Whether National Grid’s doomsday scenario will come to pass or not depends on the availability of gas – not just in the UK but across Europe.

Countries on the Continent have scrambled to reduce their dependence on gas supplies from Russia.

Vladimir Putin’s decision to shut the Nord Stream 1 pipeline means flows to north-west Europe from Russia have already fallen to nil. Flows to the Continent are roughly 20pc of levels in 2020.

The complicating factor is that France is more dependent on gas than normal. The country continues to suffer from outages at its nuclear power plants. It means that if UK electricity generation holds up, France is more likely to end up importing power from Britain.

National Grid says this quirk means that despite British domestic and industrial customers using less gas this winter, overall gas usage will rise as gas-power electricity plants scramble to produce power to send under the English Channel to France.

Nord Stream 1 pipes - HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/REUTERS
Nord Stream 1 pipes - HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/REUTERS

In a separate report on gas demand, National Grid starts from the working assumption that the UK will not need to import gas this winter.

Supplies of liquified natural gas (LNG) will keep the country well stocked.

But the suppliers are commercial operators. If demand on the Continent increases – for instance if there is a prolonged cold snap – then LNG shipments could be directed away from the UK. In the cold winter months, competition for gas supplies could start heating up.