Most accurate presidential election poll over the past four election cycles will be released each day at 9:00 a.m. ET starting today
IBD/TIPP, the most accurate poll over the past four election cycles and one of only two national polls to correctly predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election, announced the release of its daily Presidential Tracking Poll, which will appear every morning at 9:00 a.m. ET starting today. The poll is a collaboration between IBD and its polling partner, TIPP.
IBD/TIPP has a long history of accurate election forecasting. In 2004 and 2008, IBD/TIPP had the smallest deviation from the certified results, and across the last four presidential races, IBD/TIPP had the lowest average divergence. 2012 saw IBD/TIPP differentiate itself based on its ability to ascertain greater intensity among Democratic voters, leading to higher than generally expected turnout. This was a huge factor in the 2016 Presidential Election as well. The IBD/TIPP poll determined the strong enthusiasm of Republican voters, which ultimately made the difference in the election. The final IBD/TIPP poll before Election Day predicted Donald Trump’s victory, showing him with a 1.6 edge over Hillary Clinton in a four-way matchup, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Head-to-head, Clinton led Trump by just one point. This was a notably lower margin than the average of other national polls.
The IBD/TIPP poll’s established track record is due in large part to its unique model that focuses on the responses of those most likely to vote. The model is consistently refined to best suit the unique aspects of the election based on insights acquired as the tracking poll proceeds. The model also adapts to account for demographics such as the race, gender, age, geographic region and political party affiliation of the nation as a whole.
Each day, the IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll data will reflect a survey of 800-1,000 likely voters conducted over the prior five days. As in prior years, TIPP -- the polling arm of nationally recognized research firm TechnoMetrica -- will conduct live telephone interviews. However, TIPP will supplement phone interviews with online surveys this time to better capture younger voters. Out of about 200 daily interviews, TIPP will conduct 80 via cell phone, 45 via landline and 75 online. The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll will show results for Trump vs. Biden, as well as a four-way race including third parties.
"The IBD/TIPP poll goes where the data directs it, which is why it has been so successful over time," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica. "Right now, data suggests a significant number of votes are still in play, and factors like COVID-19, economic stimulus and mail-in voting could have a real impact. This is a race to watch."
The IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll can be found at Investors.com/TrackingPoll.
ABOUT THE IBD©/TIPP POLL
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with good reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of 900-plus adults. The national poll is generally conducted in the first week of the month by live interviewers on both cell phones and landlines.
Investor's Business Daily (IBD) is a leading financial news and research organization recognized for proprietary stock screens, comparative performance ratings and a record of identifying stock leaders as they emerge. The company takes a data-first approach to investing, educating investors about how to invest successfully using tested methods and sound research. IBD has honed its approach over the last 50 years to help investors make smarter decisions. Its stock lists have outperformed the S&P, and its presidential poll, the most accurate over the past four election cycles, was one of only two national polls to accurately predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election. IBD offers a number of interactive stock research tools and provides information for investors of every level. To learn more about all that IBD has available, please visit www.investors.com.
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