Are gyms set to close? What could happen under the ‘three tier’ system
If you've opened up any news apps this morning, you'll have been greeted by a heady mix of titbits on the incoming 'three tier' system, which will try to contain the spread of Covid-19 via localised measures. The idea is that what you can and cannot do will be based on the rate of coronavirus transmission in your area. More cases means harsher measures; fewer means lighter ones.
High on the agenda? The likely shutting of gyms and hospitality venues like pubs for those in the tier three category (right now, according to the BBC, it seems like this will apply to Liverpool and surrounding areas), as well as the nixing of the 'rule of six' for all but tier one.
Of course, until official announcements come in, we're working with speculation (and, reports the BBC's deputy political editor, Vicky Young, it sounds like some flexibility for local leaders will be available.) But, according to a draft plan seen by the Guardian, this is a likely basic framework. Scroll on to see, plus, check out comment from the experts, below.
Tier three
Gyms, pubs, bars, casinos and bookmakers are expected to close
Restaurants may remain open, in some reduced capacity (for example, just for takeaway)
Places of worship to stay open, in some capacity
If you live in a tier three area, you'll be asked to only make 'essential journeys' within that area
Unless it's urgent, you'll be asked to not leave your area
Your friends and family living in non tier three areas will be asked not to travel to you unless it's essential, and to not stay overnight, if they do have an urgent need to come
No having anyone from outside of your household or support bubble in your home or garden (no 'rule of six.')
Tier two
You cannot have people from outside of your household in your home or garden unless they are in your support or childcare bubble (basically, the 'rule of six' no longer applies, that's purely for tier one areas)
Gyms to remain open
You can still play organised team sports
10pm curfew in place for all open hospitality
Weddings of 15 people allowed, but with no reception after the ceremony; funerals with 15 people allowed
Tier one
The key here is sticking to the 'Rule of six', with a maximum of six people allowed in a home or garden, or to sit together at a restaurant or pub
10pm curfew in place for all open hospitality
Gyms to remain open
Weddings of 15 people and funerals of 30 allowed
Team sports allowed
What do the experts say?
On the 5 October, in response to early reports of a three tier system being announced, Dr Nilu Ahmed, a behavioural psychologist at the University of Bristol, said:
"The first stage of the pandemic lockdown saw a blanket rule imposed across the country. This left no room for error in understanding what we could and could not do. As we have moved into local lockdowns the public have expressed feeling baffled by the different guidance across the country which is being widely reported in the media. It can be unclear what rules apply to whom.
"The more direct and simple rules are, the greater the likelihood of compliance as they are easier to remember. When information is confusing, it can deter engagement if people feel overwhelmed from multiple pieces of advice and regulations, and people may unwittingly fall foul of regulations. Clear guidance offers more than just rules to follow, it provides reassurance during stressful times."
Dr Flavio Toxvaerd, specialist in the economics of infectious diseases at the University of Cambridge, however, offered the following take:
"It is now clear that there has been a shift in policy to more broadly apply regional and local measures going forward. The PM expressed reluctance to implement across-the-board lockdowns such as the ones that were imposed earlier in the year.
"I think this is the right approach, whenever possible. Controlling the spread of the disease while safeguarding economic and social activity is a fine balancing act so it is right that local conditions should dictate local policy.
"As a general principle, the targeting of measures to specific groups or geographical areas is preferable to one-size-fits-all measures, because they allow us to minimise the damage that social distancing inevitably imposes on society and the economy.
"Having said that, it is sometimes difficult to achieve. Shielding the elderly and vulnerable, an example of targeting based on the age and health status of people, has proved extraordinarily difficult.
"Geographic targeting may bring large benefits, but also comes with practical challenges and needs to be coordinated with neighbouring regions. If a town closes pubs and entertainment venues and the next town doesn’t, then we may inadvertently help the disease spread from one to the other. We saw a stark illustration of this in Italy in March, where lockdowns in the North of the country prompted thousands to rush to the South of the country. This shows that regional policies have to be carefully considered and implemented."
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