Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: May 25, 2023

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Weekly Commentary: Jason Segel delivers his best performance in Apple TV+’s “Shrinking.” It’s his finest since his revelatory work in the film “The End of the Tour” (2015), also directed by Jason Ponsoldt and one that should have received Oscar attention. His work in the freshman series is awe-inspiring, chock full of laughs and tears opposite Harrison Ford and Jessica Williams. He could be a threat to win if the show continues to build Emmy buzz.

Jeremy Allen White’s turn as former high-end New York restaurant chef Carmen in FX’s critically acclaimed series “The Bear” has swept the circuit since its debut last summer. Walking away with the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards, White, 32, seems to be the undisputed favorite in these early days of the season.

However, two-time consecutive Emmy winner Jason Sudeikis of Apple’s “Ted Lasso” has never lost an award he was up for. This third season could continue the sweep and stop Allen in his tracks.

Bill Hader’s final season of HBO’s “Barry” could also mix things up, and you can never count out the double trouble of veterans Steve Martin and Martin Short from Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building.”

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

1. Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX)

2. Jason Sudeikis — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

3. Jason Segel — “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

4. Bill Hader — “Barry” (HBO)

5. Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

6. Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Next in Line

1. Nicholas Hoult — “The Great” (Hulu)

2. Mohammed Amer — “Mo” (Netflix)

3. Donald Glover — “Atlanta” (FX)

4. Ronald Gladden — “Jury Duty” (Freevee)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

1. Ramy Youssef — “Ramy” (Hulu)

2. Nathan Fielder — “The Rehearsal” (HBO)

3. Utkarsh Ambudkar — “Ghosts” (CBS)

4. Arnold Schwarzenegger — “Fubar” (Netflix)

5. Sylvester Stallone — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)

6. Delroy Lindo — “Unprisoned” (Hulu)

7. Kayvan Novak — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

8. Dave Burd — “Dave” (FX)

9. Bob Odenkirk — “Lucky Hank” (AMC)

10. Adam Scott — “Party Down” (Starz)

All Eligible Performers (Alphabetized by Network)**

• John Goodman — “The Conners” (ABC)

• Topher Grace — “Home Economics” (ABC)

• Elisha Williams — “The Wonder Years” (ABC)

• Christoph Waltz — “The Consultant” (Amazon Prime Video)

• James Corden — “Mammals” (Amazon Prime Video)

• Stephen Merchant — “The Outlaws” (Amazon Prime Video)

• Christopher Walken — “The Outlaws” (Amazon Prime Video)

• Bob Odenkirk — “Lucky Hank” (AMC)

• Chris O’Dowd — “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+)

• Rob McElenney — “Mythic Quest” (Apple TV+)

• Keegan-Michael Key — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)

• Jason Segel — “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

• Jason Sudeikis — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

• Billy Gardell — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)

• Utkarsh Ambudkar — “Ghosts” (CBS)

• Steve Howey — “True Lies” (CBS)

• Ben Wang — “American Born Chinese” (Disney+)

• Ronald Gladden — “Jury Duty” (Freevee)

• Garrett Dillahunt — “Sprung” (Freevee)

• Donald Glover — “Atlanta” (FX)

• Dave Burd — “Dave” (FX)

• Keegan-Michael Key — “Reboot” (FX)

• Johnny Knoxville — “Reboot” (FX)

• D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)

• Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX)

• Matt Berry — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

• Kayvan Novak — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

• Bill Hader — “Barry” (HBO)

• Drew Tarver — “The Other Two” (HBO)

• Rhys Darby — “Our Flag Means Death” (HBO)

• John Cena — “Peacemaker” (HBO)

• Nathan Fielder — “The Rehearsal” (HBO)

• John Goodman — “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO)

• Danny McBride — “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO)

• Michael Cimino — “Love, Victor” (Hulu)

• Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

• Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

• Ramy Youssef — “Ramy” (Hulu)

• Nicholas Hoult — “The Great” (Hulu)

• Delroy Lindo — “Unprisoned” (Hulu)

• Carlos Valdes — “Up Here” (Hulu)

• Randall Park — “Blockbuster” (Netflix)

• Ralph Macchio — “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)

• William Zabka — “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)

• Lucas Bravo — “Emily in Paris” (Netflix)

• Arnold Schwarzenegger — “Fubar” (Netflix)

• Mohammed Amer — “Mo” (Netflix)

• Rob Lowe — “Unstable” (Netflix)

• Neil Patrick Harris — “Uncoupled” (Netflix)

• Sylvester Stallone — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)

• Pete Davidson — “Bupkis” (Peacock)

• John Larroquette — “Night Court” (Peacock)

• William Jackson Harper — “The Resort” (Peacock)

• Adam Scott — “Party Down” (Starz)

• Alan Tudyk — “Resident Alien” (Syfy)

** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) |

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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