Covid cases could start rising ‘exponentially’ within weeks, health expert warns
Covid cases could see an “exponential growth” in the next few weeks, a health expert has said.
The Department of Health recorded a 17.8 per cent drop in cases compared to last Thursday with daily infection numbers down for the first time in two months.
However, Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, has warned that while the decline was “positive”, Freedom Day “effects will not yet be appearing in the data”.
Referring to Thursday’s figures, he told MailOnline: “They represent an 18 per cent drop. Also the week-on-week percentage increase in cases has fallen from a peak of 43 per cent last Sunday to just 24 per cent today.
“But it is still too early to see any impact of the relaxations of Monday 19 and some of the reduction in cases will be because of many children no longer being tested as regularly now schools are closed.
He said that this may be a “temporary slowing in reports” before we begin to see a rise in cases towards the end of next week as a result of the easing of restrictions last week.
Prof Hunter added that we will not know for certain until August 9 - three weeks after unlocking restrictions on July 19.
However, he did say there are some “positive signs”.
“If you look at the course of the Delta epidemic from early May it was clear that the rate of increase in cases was already slowing by June,” he said.
“But there was a significant acceleration in new cases about eight to 10 days after the first England game in the Euros.
He added that there was a “subsequent acceleration” around the quarter-finals, but the increase after both events started “slowing fairly sooner” despite the games continuing.
“If such a perturbation as the Euros caused only a temporary acceleration in the increase in case numbers despite games continuing, this may bode well for the impact of 19 July, it could suggest we will see only a short-term boost towards the end of next week followed by slowing or even a decline in the days following. Time will tell.”
Read More
Hospitality workers won’t get early exemption from isolation - Eustice
Sydney declares ‘national emergency’ as Delta coronavirus cases rise
Hopes raised France will go on amber list as holiday getaway begins
