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Should I book a summer holiday now, and which destinations are the safest bet?

There are high hopes that the 'great summer holiday' can go ahead in 2021 - Getty
There are high hopes that the 'great summer holiday' can go ahead in 2021 - Getty

In case you missed it, until Britain’s latest lockdown is over – whenever that might be – holidays are banned.

You cannot travel unless it is ‘essential’. If you do have an essential reason to travel, you’ll have to get tested before you go, another before you return, and then at least two more tests on arrival back, and your ten-day quarantine in the UK will be at a hotel if arriving from one of 33 ‘red-listed’ countries. Hefty fines await, if you break any of these rules.

So no, you cannot travel at the moment. But whether we will be able to travel overseas for summer is currently a topic of much debate. After telling the nation to prepare for a ‘Great British Summer’, and proudly announcing his own summer plans to visit Cornwall, Matt Hancock is now echoing messages from Grant Shapps and Boris Johnson to advise the nation to delay booking right now.

So to book, or not to book? Our consumer expert, Nick Trend, remains optimistic that a summer holiday may go ahead. “I think we have good grounds for optimism that travel of some kind will be possible by the school summer holidays,” he says.

“But given the latest government advice not to book, it’s probably wise to hold on for at least three or four more weeks. However, optimists who want to travel during a peak week from the beginning of July onwards, and who are especially keen to get a particular flight or hotel which is usually in high demand might take a more bullish line.

“If you are of such a caste and do decide to commit, make sure that you book with a bonded tour operator so that your money is protected if the company goes out of business. And I would recommend going with an Abta (abta.com) or Aito (aito.co.uk) member – the two organisations have a code of conduct and a dispute resolution service if things go wrong.”

But two big questions remain, says Nick: “Firstly, will fears over new Covid variants have been allayed sufficiently to reestablish quarantine-free travel? Not many Britons will be willing or able to leave the country if it means a 10-day period of isolation when they return,” says Nick. “Secondly, how many countries will be open to us? Some of the best chances are likely to be countries which are most dependent on UK tourists.”

Where to book for your summer holiday?

The below list comes with significant caveats: anything can change and, right now, no holiday you book is guaranteed to go ahead. If the last eleven months are anything to go by, there will be nothing smooth about the recommencement of international holidays. If you do book, protect yourself by going with a tour operator with an airtight cancellation or rebooking policy – and keep everything crossed.

UK

By far our best option for a holiday is, of course, on home soil. "Things would have to take a very wrong turn for the domestic tourism industry to remain closed for the whole of the summer," writes Nick Trend. "Much more likely the biggest problem you will face is that accommodation will be so heavily booked that decent options will be hard to find. However, much depends on when you are thinking of travelling."

It may not resemble complete normality, says Nick. "Perhaps the Rule of Six may be re-imposed, or accommodation rentals limited to single households. So be aware of these possibilities if you are planning a holiday with friends or your extended family, for example. There is always the risk too that the tier system might be re-introduced. This might allow, for example, hotels and self catering to re-open in some parts of the country and not others. Likewise, people living in some regions might be able to travel but those based in areas where high infection rates persist might be prevented from doing so. Bear in mind too that not all sights may be open and some activities may not be possible until later in the summer."

Long-haul

A Caribbean island

Over the last six months, the Caribbean has been the most reliable corner of the world when it comes to holiday options for Britons. Prior to the Government scrapping all travel corridors, there were eight Caribbean islands welcoming British travellers, including the likes of Barbados, Cuba, St Lucia and Antigua. All require testing prior to departure or on arrival, or both, which has become the norm across the world, although it is not impossible that the islands will start accepting some kind of vaccination certificate as an alternative to a negative test.

The snag, of course, is that the summer isn’t the best time to visit the Caribbean. June to November is the official hurricane season, and statistically you are most likely to encounter a major storm in September or October. So taking into account the weather, and the likelihood of when the UK might lift its non-essential travel advisory, booking mid to late May would give you your best shot of a holiday.

Beware, however, that cases have been on the rise recently. St Lucia, for example, has seen a five-fold surge in cases over the past month. Keep a close eye on cases and regulations in the coming months.

St Lucia is among the Caribbean islands to have welcomed British holidaymakers throughout the pandemic - Getty
St Lucia is among the Caribbean islands to have welcomed British holidaymakers throughout the pandemic - Getty

The Seychelles

The first country in Africa to start a Covid-19 vaccination programme, the Seychelles has set itself the ambitious task of becoming the first country in the world to vaccinate 70 per cent of its adult population. With a population of 97,000, and generous vaccination donations from the UAE and India coming through, this is looking achievable.

Once its population is immunised, the idyllic island nation can turn its attention to how to kickstart its main source of revenue – tourism. Temperatures are consistently high throughout the year, although May to September is windy season. On January 7 the UK Government banned all arrivals from the Seychelles due to the South African variant, and it remains on our ‘red list’, which is a factor to keep an eye on.

Global Vaccination Campaign (as of Jan 17)
Global Vaccination Campaign (as of Jan 17)

Maldives

For a luxury escape in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives could be a solid bet. As it stands, all tourists and short-term visitors must present a negative PCR test on arrival, taken no more than 96 hours before departure. Screening procedures are in place for all passengers on arrival, with quarantine facilities set up to isolate any suspected cases. Being so isolated, as it is, and since the Maldives offers resort-based holidays, it is in a good position to offer contained holidays without the risk of too much mingling.

The Maldives offers the perfect socially distanced escape
The Maldives offers the perfect socially distanced escape

Short-haul

Greece

Throughout the pandemic, Greece has been more welcoming to British holidaymakers than other European destinations. Before Christmas, when we could still feasibly travel without breaking the rules, Greece was one of the few destinations welcoming British arrivals – albeit with strict testing and quarantine requirements. It is fair to assume the country will provide us with a similarly warm welcome, after this latest lockdown.

The Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is in favour of accepting vaccination certificates to reboot tourism – and has even made a deal to reopen tourism with vaccinated arrivals from Israel. Last month, he said it was "urgent to adopt a common understanding on how a vaccination certificate should be structured so as to be accepted in all Member States." With the UK leading the way in Europe when it comes to vaccination figures, Mitsotakis’s sympathetic view to letting in vaccinated arrivals could work in our favour after lockdown.

A Greek island escape could be on the cards this summer
A Greek island escape could be on the cards this summer

Iceland

Towards the end of 2020, Iceland became one of the first countries to let in visitors with proof of Covid-19 antibodies – that is, proof that they have been infected and recovered from the virus – and to travel around without entering quarantine. It is possible that, at some point in the future, proof of vaccination would negate the need to take an antibody test. Everyone else arriving in Iceland can currently take a test at the border and a second test after five days, to leave isolation. Go in June (if you can) to witness the midnight sun.

Italy

Italy is high up the list of countries to have rolled out the vaccine – having immunised 4.5 per cent of its population, amounting to 2,755,656 doses. This means that, of all the UK’s favourite holiday destinations, Italy is right up there when it comes to emerging from lockdown and returning to "normality". Spain is just ahead on 2,233,249 doses, 4.8 per cent of its population, but has endured stricter lockdowns than elsewhere in Europe. This means that, of our holiday favourites, Italy must be seen as a front-runner for a summer holiday on the Continent.

Things have been quiet in Venice, throughout the pandemic
Things have been quiet in Venice, throughout the pandemic

Portugal

It is currently red-listed and seeing a big surge in cases, so might seem like an unlikely bet right now. However, along with Greece, Portugal has been very welcoming of Britons throughout the pandemic. Luis Araujo, who heads up the national tourism authority, was keen to let us know that Britons are “100% welcome” back in early summer – unsurprising, given the reliance on certain regions, like the Algarve, on British arrivals. The Portuguese government has also given commitment to UK citizens living in Portugal that their rights to extend residency without restriction can continue after Brexit.

The country is also keen to give benefits to long-term British tourists. After Brexit a normal holiday in Europe will not require a visa, but a stay of more than 90 days will. Portugal, however, may offer us 180 days. This would please second home owners who have asked EU countries to match UK rules: after January 1, citizens of the EU, EEA and Switzerland who want to stay here for up to six months will not require a visa.

“We’ll do whatever we can to continue to make Portugal attractive to British citizens for tourism or permanent residence,” Manuel Lobo Antunes, the Portuguese ambassador to the UK, told Telegraph Travel.

“We have always said that we would like to have a situation that is as close as possible to the situation we had before Brexit.”

City break

Dubai

It may be red-listed, right now. But when it comes to vaccinations per 100 people, the UAE is right up there. To date (February 11) the United Arab Emirates has administered more than 4.6 million doses of the vaccine, amounting to 43.58 per cent of its population. This means that, in the race to achieving some kind of “post-pandemic normality”, the UAE is making good progress.

What’s more, prior to being red-listed the UAE has been welcoming to British holidaymakers throughout the pandemic. Just last month there were news stories about influencers and Love Island celebrities who were (whether legitimately or not) enjoying the sun in Dubai. It is fair to assume that both the UK and the UAE will be keen to reboot travel as soon as possible, with business travel in mind; London to Dubai is one of the busiest air routes in the world, after all.

It will be very hot during the summer months – often between 35 and 50 degrees – but there usually isn’t much rain, so that’s something.

Dubai could be a viable option for a city break in the sun - Getty
Dubai could be a viable option for a city break in the sun - Getty

New York City

On paper, this doesn’t make a great deal of sense. The USA has had far more Covid cases and deaths than anywhere else on Earth. However, it is also leading the way with vaccinations – as of today it has issued 46 million vaccine doses, amounting to 14 per cent of the population.

What’s more, there have been ongoing talks of a UK–US travel corridor, primarily to reboot business travel between London and New York City. By the summer, if both the UK and the US continue at their projected rates of vaccinating their populations, it is not unfeasible to think that a New York city break could be on the cards.

Where are you hoping to visit on your summer holiday? Comment below to join the conversation.