2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

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We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

Last year it was a question of how well “Ted Lasso” star Jason Sudeikis would fare against Emmy winners Bill Hader (“Barry”) and Donald Glover (“Atlanta”), having never been nominated for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series next to them before. This year, the question is how well the Apple TV+ comedy star will fare against newcomer Jeremy Allen White, who swept the winter awards season for his performance in FX on Hulu’s summer hit “The Bear.”

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But that is just getting into the shows that have already been tested. “Beef” star Steven Yeun and “Shrinking” star Jason Segel have two of the biggest show launches this spring. There is also “Lucky Hank” star Bob Odenkirk and “Party Down” star Adam Scott, who were both major Lead Actor in a Drama contenders last year (and still this year for the former) diving into a new category.

“Only Murders in the Building” may have had a bit of a sophomore slump, but it has not lost any awards momentum. It’ll be rolling out a third season starring Meryl Streep (!!!) in the middle of Emmys campaigning, so there are still going to be a lot of TV Academy eyes on leads Steve Martin and Martin Short. Fellow Hulu series “The Great” is also back a little earlier, but still late in the Emmys eligibility window, as a way to keep star Nicholas Hoult top of mind, and secure him a second consecutive nomination in this category.

“Mo” star Mohammed Amer and “Ramy” star Ramy Youssef are involved in each others’ series, so they could have a “rising tide lifts all boats situation” here. Also “Unprisoned” star Delroy Lindo is back with his first major role since “Da 5 Bloods,” and his “The Good Fight” exit, so Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series in particular has more exciting contenders than what can fit into six nomination slots the Emmys usually offer.

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Mohammed Amer, “Mo” (Netflix)
Donald Glover, “Atlanta” (FX)
Bill Hader, “Barry” (HBO)
Nicholas Hoult, “The Great” (Hulu)
John Larroquette, “Night Court” (NBC)
Delroy Lindo, “Unprisoned” (Hulu)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Bob Odenkirk, “Lucky Hank” (AMC)
Adam Scott, “Party Down” (Starz)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (AppleTV+)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (Hulu)
Steven Yeun, “Beef” (Netflix)
Ramy Youssef, “Ramy” (Hulu)

More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Should Sudeikis receive a third Emmy in a row, it would be an achievement only Michael J. Fox (“Growing Pains”), Carroll O’Connnor (“All in the Family”), and Don Adams (“Get Smart”) had accomplished before him.
Notable Ineligible Series: Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Season 12 was not eligible); Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish” (ended)

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